national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: José Antonio Kast
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 1,801.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-7899c8306f1881b2aa2d45ee| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 50.2% |
| Disapprove | 48.2% |
| Unsure | 1.6% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: José Antonio Kast
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 2,069.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-3eb397c709e3b2a0446584bf| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 54.1% |
| Disapprove | 45.8% |
| Unsure | 0.1% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Approval increased 3.9 points and disapproval declined 2.4 points. This is a descriptive two-wave change, not an established long-run trend. The next ordinary subnational cohort is outside the fixed window.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Delcy Rodríguez
Reported margin of error: ±3 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 1,110.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-aacfbaf6d304b8b70b78a80d| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 22% |
| Disapprove | 64.5% |
| Unsure | 13.5% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Delcy Rodríguez
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 1,922.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-6da5f76d3f13dcd00c6bbd0d| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 24.6% |
| Disapprove | 60.5% |
| Unsure | 14.9% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Approval rose 2.6 points and disapproval fell 4.0 points; the approval movement is within combined reported survey uncertainty. Disapproval remains much higher than approval. No local turnover forecast is inferred, and electoral access conditions need separate assessment.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Javier Milei
Reported margin of error: ±3 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 1,120.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-9b314eaa56ed7022dd8198e3| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 37.1% |
| Disapprove | 62.4% |
| Unsure | 0.5% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Javier Milei
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 2,193.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-dba1af0e4f24c8fbe556f75c| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 38.1% |
| Disapprove | 58% |
| Unsure | 3.9% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Approval rose 1.0 percentage point while disapproval fell 4.4 points; approval movement is smaller than the combined reported survey uncertainty. The negative approval balance remains a national headwind for Milei-aligned candidates, conditional on local alliance and incumbent identity.
national · vote intention
Datafolha
Hypothetical presidential runoff
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential poll; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-09-01–2026-09-02 · published 2026-09-03. Sample 2,002.
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-759b34cd8ce8a4149432a438| Response | Value |
|---|
| Lula (PT) | 46% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 44% |
No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed
Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.
local · vote intention
Datafolha
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±3 percentage points.
Population: Rio de Janeiro governor. Fieldwork 2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · published 2026-09-11. Sample 1,204.
Attached only to Rio de Janeiro — Governor.
Responses for poll-caa0736794da4efe504007b0| Response | Value |
|---|
| Eduardo Paes (PSD) | 43% |
| Douglas Ruas (PL) | 25% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Eduardo Paes (PSD) 43%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 25%. Numerical gap 18 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 3%. Neither leading candidate is the interim governor. Later candidate eligibility decisions can change the ballot.
local · vote intention
Paraná Pesquisas
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±2.4 percentage points.
Population: São Paulo governor. Fieldwork 2026-09-07–2026-09-10 · published 2026-09-11. Sample 1,680.
Attached only to São Paulo — Governor.
Responses for poll-103a802719fe2168df8e897e| Response | Value |
|---|
| Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) | 49.7% |
| Fernando Haddad (PT) | 34.5% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 49.7%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 34.5%. Numerical gap 15.2 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 4.4%. The incumbent leads this poll. Valid-vote normalization is not substituted for all-respondent shares.
local · vote intention
Quaest
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: São Paulo governor. Fieldwork 2026-09-04–2026-09-07 · published 2026-09-08. Sample 1,800.
Attached only to São Paulo — Governor.
Responses for poll-d0b8fb881cadf1c26c2b4230| Response | Value |
|---|
| Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) | 42% |
| Fernando Haddad (PT) | 27% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 42%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 27%. Numerical gap 15 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 14%. The incumbent leads this poll; it is retained alongside the later Paraná study without averaging unlike surveys.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Lula
Reported margin of error: ±1 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-22–2026-07-27. Sample 5,021.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-65c0265e44d4642b94d20941| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 48% |
| Disapprove | 51% |
| Unsure | 1% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Lula
Reported margin of error: ±1 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-25–2026-08-30. Sample 5,014.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-30eb96282fdf997ea70a8116| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 45% |
| Disapprove | 53% |
| Unsure | 2% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.
local · other
Quaest
Prompted governor preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±3 percentage points.
Population: Roraima governor. Fieldwork 2026-08-23–2026-08-26 · published 2026-08-27. Sample 804.
Attached only to Roraima — Governor.
Responses for poll-a06d12410ef4572929861ab4| Response | Value |
|---|
| Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos; acting governor) | 27% |
| Arthur Henrique (PL) | 60% |
Poll suggests substantial electoral pressure on the acting administration; no calibrated win probability or resolved certification is inferred.
Arthur Henrique leads acting governor Soldado Sampaio by 33 points in this snapshot. Rosi Aires 1%; Farah Mesquita and Clebio Genuino 0%; undecided 9%; blank/null/abstention 3%. Published rounded categories sum to 100%. The June supplementary result remains judicially unresolved in recovered evidence.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Gustavo Petro
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 2,191.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-3a5fd1d8e9d9401698f6eea6| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 46.4% |
| Disapprove | 51.1% |
| Unsure | 2.5% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Abelardo de la Espriella
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 1,904.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-f66aa1624e512d4e2c7aeb88| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 51.8% |
| Disapprove | 43.2% |
| Unsure | 5% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.
local · vote intention
Grau & Asociados
Municipal vote intention
Population: Asunción mayor. Fieldwork 2026-07-23–2026-07-24. Sample Unknown.
Attached only to ASUNCION / CAPITAL — Mayor.
Responses for poll-d21cb836ad66d40d3fbc640d| Response | Value |
|---|
| Camilo Pérez (ANR) | 41.2% |
| Soledad Núñez (opposition alliance) | 28.7% |
Reported lead, without calibrated probability; full technical sheet unavailable
Pérez leads in two separately reported polls. Different pollsters and incomplete technical details prevent averaging or a time-trend estimate. This local evidence does not imply the same result across Paraguay.
local · vote intention
MultiTarget
Municipal vote intention
Population: Asunción mayor. Fieldwork 2026-08-06–2026-08-10. Sample 760.
Attached only to ASUNCION / CAPITAL — Mayor.
Responses for poll-2c86a5c808d82c31527c9950| Response | Value |
|---|
| Camilo Pérez (ANR) | 47.6% |
| Soledad Núñez (opposition alliance) | 35% |
Reported lead, without calibrated probability; full technical sheet unavailable
Pérez leads in two separately reported polls. Different pollsters and incomplete technical details prevent averaging or a time-trend estimate. This local evidence does not imply the same result across Paraguay.
local · vote intention
Ipsos
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±4.37 percentage points.
Population: Lima provincial municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-05–2026-08-06 · published 2026-08-10. Sample 502.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA — Provincial municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-561fdfd4ef0f3bbaa6088e8f| Response | Value |
|---|
| Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) | 21% |
| Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) | 13% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 21%, Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) 13%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 21%. Technical sheet on page 12; candidate chart on pages 4–5. Website article is dated 10 August; search metadata showed 28 August and is not used.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±5.7 percentage points.
Population: Miraflores district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-17–2026-08-21 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 300.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / MIRAFLORES — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-953add6a0b79623b165fe666| Response | Value |
|---|
| Alessio Cantella | 20% |
| Jorge Muñoz | 16.6% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Alessio Cantella 20%, Jorge Muñoz 16.6%. Numerical gap 3.4 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 23.3%.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±5.2 percentage points.
Population: La Molina district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-17–2026-08-21 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 350.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / LA MOLINA — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-fe0ef63f781ee4af6e9ff0a0| Response | Value |
|---|
| Juan Carlos Zurek | 21.7% |
| Sergio Castromonte | 16.6% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Juan Carlos Zurek 21.7%, Sergio Castromonte 16.6%. Numerical gap 5.1 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 31.1%.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points.
Population: Los Olivos district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-07-31–2026-08-04 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 400.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / LOS OLIVOS — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-8bd052040bb05851bb8e53fa| Response | Value |
|---|
| Felipe Castillo Alfaro | 26.1% |
| Erick Melchor | 10.6% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Felipe Castillo Alfaro 26.1%, Erick Melchor 10.6%. Numerical gap 15.5 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 28.4%.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±6.2 percentage points.
Population: Pueblo Libre district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-11–2026-08-14 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 250.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / PUEBLO LIBRE — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-09c463eee7021ce17dc68be8| Response | Value |
|---|
| Jhonel Leguía | 24.8% |
| Cecilia Acosta | 13.6% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Jhonel Leguía 24.8%, Cecilia Acosta 13.6%. Numerical gap 11.2 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 35.6%.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±5.2 percentage points.
Population: Santiago De Surco district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-14–2026-08-19 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 350.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SANTIAGO DE SURCO — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-0c83e9b3d14a50cda401e42a| Response | Value |
|---|
| Arturo Bobbio | 30.6% |
| Juan Palma | 22.6% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Arturo Bobbio 30.6%, Juan Palma 22.6%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 19.1%.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±5.7 percentage points.
Population: San Borja district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-15–2026-08-19 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 300.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SAN BORJA — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-df71ac8963433cff0d4733ab| Response | Value |
|---|
| Javier Diez | 26.7% |
| Alberto Tejada | 14.7% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Javier Diez 26.7%, Alberto Tejada 14.7%. Numerical gap 12 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 23.7%.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±5.7 percentage points.
Population: San Isidro district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-14–2026-08-18 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 300.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SAN ISIDRO — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-4fa0eab89cc16a946744b9d0| Response | Value |
|---|
| Javier Paino | 17.3% |
| Víctor Hugo Bazán | 14.7% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Javier Paino 17.3%, Víctor Hugo Bazán 14.7%. Numerical gap 2.6 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 44.7%.
local · vote intention
CPI
Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents
Reported margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points.
Population: San Martin De Porres district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-18–2026-08-23 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 400.
Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SAN MARTIN DE PORRES — District municipal ballot.
Responses for poll-455dbc5a812c735a625d058f| Response | Value |
|---|
| Peter Jaime | 15.3% |
| Adolfo Mattos | 10.5% |
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Peter Jaime 15.3%, Adolfo Mattos 10.5%. Numerical gap 4.8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 34.2%.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: José Balcázar
Reported margin of error: ±3 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 982.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-3c9bc4f5c8791e36eda5f86a| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 23.2% |
| Disapprove | 56.2% |
| Unsure | 20.6% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Keiko Fujimori
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 1,769.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-ffea31ae4fb1caa099a342cf| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 42.8% |
| Disapprove | 40.3% |
| Unsure | 16.9% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
The July question evaluates outgoing José Balcázar and August evaluates Keiko Fujimori. No within-president change is computed. The new administration has a small positive approval balance and 16.9% unsure; this does not establish movement in regional or municipal voting intentions.
national · presidential approval
International Republican Institute / CISR
Reported overall government evaluation: 49% positive, 49% negative. This is not party voting intention.
Population: National adult-resident public opinion and government evaluation. Fieldwork 2026-04-09–2026-05-03 · published 2026-07-16. Sample 1,200.
In-person interviews at respondents’ homes; full sampling and weighting details not extracted
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Dated national opinion context only; no local government-change flag supported Fieldwork ended 128 days before the snapshot. Primary report retrieval was blocked; indexed field dates and a named secondary interpretation support this record. Reported full-sample margin ±3.1 points is not a municipality-level margin. Proposed boundary reform and the 2019 boycott further limit local comparison.
national · vote intention
Andorra Recerca + Innovació (AR+I)
Decided vote: Concòrdia 37.9%, DA alliance 29.2%, Andorra Endavant 22.1%, PS 10.3%, Liberals 0.5%. Vote plus sympathy (different denominator): 35.5%, 27.1%, 19.1%, 11.7%, SDP 2.2%, Liberals 1.5%; other/unclassified detail retained in the source.
Population: National parliamentary intention and vote-plus-sympathy trend. Fieldwork 2026-04-29–2026-05-15 · published 2026-06-01. Sample 403.
Random telephone sample: 403 Andorran citizens plus 399 non-citizens (802 total). Voting estimates use the citizen sample; decided-party subset n=195, vote-plus-sympathy subset n=275.
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Early governing-list exposure in Canillo, Encamp, Ordino and La Massana; local coalition re-formation and parish polls required Of all 403 citizens, 35.2% were undecided and 9.6% declined to answer. Reported ±4.95 pp error applies to the citizen sample, not smaller decided-vote subsets or individual parishes. AR+I publishes national-list estimates only because parish samples are inadequate. Fieldwork ended 116 days before the snapshot; local elections are more than a year away. National alliance labels and municipal coalitions differ.