Office briefing
São Paulo — Governor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Brazil · São Paulo / SP · regional · GovernorBR-SP-G
Read the complete original research briefing
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- São Paulo / SP
- Next election
- 2026-10-04
- Linked upcoming event
- next-3bf52dd91647fe8bc1f762dc
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2022-10-30
unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown
- REPUBLICANOS55.3%
- PT44.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REPUBLICANOS · TARCÍSIO | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 13,480,643 | 55.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PT · FERNANDO HADDAD | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 10,909,371 | 44.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
2018-10-28
unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PSDB51.7%
- PSB48.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSDB · JOÃO DORIA | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 10,990,350 | 51.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PSB · MARCIO FRANÇA | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 10,248,740 | 48.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
2014-10-05
unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PSDB57.3%
- PMDB21.5%
- PT18.2%
- PV1.2%
- PSOL0.9%
- PHS0.6%
- PRTB0.1%
- PCB0.1%
- PCO0.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSDB · GERALDO ALCKMIN | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 12,230,807 | 57.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PMDB · SKAF | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 4,594,708 | 21.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PT · PADILHA | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 3,888,584 | 18.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PV · GILBERTO NATALINI | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 260,696 | 1.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PSOL · MARINGONI | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 187,487 | 0.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PHS · LAÉRCIO BENKO | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 132,042 | 0.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRTB · WALTER CIGLIONI | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 22,822 | 0.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PCB · WAGNER FARIAS | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 12,958 | 0.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PCO · RAIMUNDO SENA | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 11,118 | 0.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI45.240–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.542314571857155, oldest_gap=35.78098292590742, previous_gap=3.4917221029714582
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=[], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=[], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=[], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[]
Source-reported control: Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos); verified in Datafolha reporting 11 Sep 2026. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
Paraná Pesquisas
vote intention · fieldwork 2026-09-07–2026-09-10
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
Quaest
vote intention · fieldwork 2026-09-04–2026-09-07
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. Roraima legal certification, Rio and other specific replacement/current-control cases remain open. Eight municipal replacement tickets are tracked; ordinary municipal renewals are outside the window. Public-vote baselines for Alagoas and Amazonas are supplied separately from their indirect selections. Roraima’s primary 2010 cycle is recovered; the June 2026 proclamation is still unresolved. Rio’s signed 2026 legislative retotalization verifies the imported 2022 votes and seats, with 70 named elected deputies added; later membership and governing-coalition control still need dated verification.
Sources
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2022: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2018: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2014: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: Paraná Pesquisas — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents · rights unknown
- Brazil: Quaest — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “São Paulo — Governor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/BR-SP-G. Sources: brazil--url-580aebec6bb5c27e76b98bb4, brazil--url-ef95aa16df1e62f699a27949, brazil--url-653ade48bf64a7388c4b910b, brazil--S5cd0a4c40e, brazil--S0d7ac4a666, brazil--S2c70216745, brazil--url-1856b370e8b7a282665d7d1c, brazil--url-98efc73d999b596aaee54a91.