Office briefing
Rio de Janeiro — Governor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Brazil · Rio de Janeiro / RJ · regional · GovernorBR-RJ-G
Read the complete original research briefing
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. TSE’s 2 June 2026 decision maintains Castro’s ineligibility but reports no majority to add cassation of the governor/vice diplomas; their prior resignations and the ordered replacement must not be collapsed into an asserted annulment of all 2022 governor votes. The recovered 31 March official report retains 8,400,962 valid governor votes. Replacement format, final selection and current control remain separately unresolved.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Rio de Janeiro / RJ
- Next election
- 2026-10-04
- Linked upcoming event
- next-33e7e8b4ef0a99d0236d761f
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2022-10-02
unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PL58.7%
- PSB27.4%
- PDT8.0%
- NOVO5.3%
- UP0.3%
- PSTU0.2%
- PCB0.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL · CLÁUDIO CASTRO | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 4,930,288 | 58.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PSB · MARCELO FREIXO | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 2,300,980 | 27.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PDT · RODRIGO NEVES | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 672,291 | 8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| NOVO · PAULO GANIME | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 446,580 | 5.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| UP · JULIETE | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 27,344 | 0.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PSTU · CYRO GARCIA | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 12,627 | 0.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PCB · EDUARDO SERRA | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 10,852 | 0.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
2018-10-28
unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PSC59.9%
- DEM40.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC · WILSON WITZEL | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 4,675,355 | 59.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| DEM · EDUARDO PAES | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 3,134,400 | 40.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
2014-10-26
unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PMDB55.8%
- PRB44.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMDB · LUIZ FERNANDO PEZÃO | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 4,343,298 | 55.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRB · MARCELO CRIVELLA | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 3,442,713 | 44.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=31.297701382294076, oldest_gap=11.56670598076473, previous_gap=19.731156739231892
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=[], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=[], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=[], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[]
Source-reported control: Ricardo Couto (interino) (Político sem partido); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026. Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
Datafolha
vote intention · fieldwork 2026-09-08–2026-09-11
Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. TSE’s 2 June 2026 decision maintains Castro’s ineligibility but reports no majority to add cassation of the governor/vice diplomas; their prior resignations and the ordered replacement must not be collapsed into an asserted annulment of all 2022 governor votes. The recovered 31 March official report retains 8,400,962 valid governor votes. Replacement format, final selection and current control remain separately unresolved. Roraima legal certification, Rio and other specific replacement/current-control cases remain open. Eight municipal replacement tickets are tracked; ordinary municipal renewals are outside the window. Public-vote baselines for Alagoas and Amazonas are supplied separately from their indirect selections. Roraima’s primary 2010 cycle is recovered; the June 2026 proclamation is still unresolved. Rio’s signed 2026 legislative retotalization verifies the imported 2022 votes and seats, with 70 named elected deputies added; later membership and governing-coalition control still need dated verification.
Sources
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2022: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2018: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2014: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: Datafolha — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Rio de Janeiro — Governor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/BR-RJ-G. Sources: brazil--url-580aebec6bb5c27e76b98bb4, brazil--url-ef95aa16df1e62f699a27949, brazil--url-653ade48bf64a7388c4b910b, brazil--S5cd0a4c40e, brazil--S0d7ac4a666, brazil--S2c70216745, brazil--url-6118e6e70b4e186f7d77dc7c.