Brazil · RJ
Rio de Janeiro — Governor
54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.
Historical competition
Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.
Provisional imported-series CI: 0.0/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.
Current government and control: Ricardo Couto (interino) (Político sem partido); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026. Current officeholder source. Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.
National polling context: National presidential poll; context for subnational races — Datafolha; fieldwork 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-02. Sample 2,002; reported margin of error ±2.00 percentage points. Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose. Poll report
Local polling evidence: Rio de Janeiro governor — Datafolha; fieldwork 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-11. Sample 1,204; reported margin of error ±3.00 percentage points. Eduardo Paes (PSD) 43%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 25%. Numerical gap 18 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 3%. Neither leading candidate is the interim governor. Later candidate eligibility decisions can change the ballot. Poll report
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-27. Sample 5,021; reported margin of error ±1.00 percentage points. Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Poll report
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-08-25 to 2026-08-30. Sample 5,014; reported margin of error ±1.00 percentage points. Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points. Poll report
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. TSE’s 2 June 2026 decision maintains Castro’s ineligibility but reports no majority to add cassation of the governor/vice diplomas; their prior resignations and the ordered replacement must not be collapsed into an asserted annulment of all 2022 governor votes. The recovered 31 March official report retains 8,400,962 valid governor votes. Replacement format, final selection and current control remain separately unresolved.
Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3
Electoral event evidence
Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.
2022-10-02 · Decisive governor round 1
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Valid nominal votes
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | CLÁUDIO CASTRO | 4,930,288 | 58.69% | — |
| PSB | MARCELO FREIXO | 2,300,980 | 27.39% | — |
| PDT | RODRIGO NEVES | 672,291 | 8.00% | — |
| NOVO | PAULO GANIME | 446,580 | 5.32% | — |
| UP | JULIETE | 27,344 | 0.33% | — |
| PSTU | CYRO GARCIA | 12,627 | 0.15% | — |
| PCB | EDUARDO SERRA | 10,852 | 0.13% | — |
2018-10-28 · Decisive governor round 2
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Valid nominal votes
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | WILSON WITZEL | 4,675,355 | 59.87% | — |
| DEM | EDUARDO PAES | 3,134,400 | 40.13% | — |
2014-10-26 · Decisive governor round 2
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Reported nominal + list counts (legacy 2014 fields)
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMDB | LUIZ FERNANDO PEZÃO | 4,343,298 | 55.78% | — |
| PRB | MARCELO CRIVELLA | 3,442,713 | 44.22% | — |
Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record BR-RJ-G.