Polling

local · vote intention

Ipsos

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±4.37 percentage points.

Population: Lima provincial municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-05–2026-08-06 · published 2026-08-10. Sample 502.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA — Provincial municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 21%, Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) 13%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 21%. Technical sheet on page 12; candidate chart on pages 4–5. Website article is dated 10 August; search metadata showed 28 August and is not used.

• Ipsos — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±5.7 percentage points.

Population: Miraflores district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-17–2026-08-21 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 300.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / MIRAFLORES — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Alessio Cantella 20%, Jorge Muñoz 16.6%. Numerical gap 3.4 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 23.3%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±5.2 percentage points.

Population: La Molina district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-17–2026-08-21 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 350.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / LA MOLINA — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Juan Carlos Zurek 21.7%, Sergio Castromonte 16.6%. Numerical gap 5.1 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 31.1%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points.

Population: Los Olivos district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-07-31–2026-08-04 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 400.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / LOS OLIVOS — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Felipe Castillo Alfaro 26.1%, Erick Melchor 10.6%. Numerical gap 15.5 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 28.4%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±6.2 percentage points.

Population: Pueblo Libre district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-11–2026-08-14 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 250.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / PUEBLO LIBRE — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Jhonel Leguía 24.8%, Cecilia Acosta 13.6%. Numerical gap 11.2 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 35.6%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±5.2 percentage points.

Population: Santiago De Surco district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-14–2026-08-19 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 350.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SANTIAGO DE SURCO — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Arturo Bobbio 30.6%, Juan Palma 22.6%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 19.1%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±5.7 percentage points.

Population: San Borja district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-15–2026-08-19 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 300.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SAN BORJA — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Javier Diez 26.7%, Alberto Tejada 14.7%. Numerical gap 12 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 23.7%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±5.7 percentage points.

Population: San Isidro district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-14–2026-08-18 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 300.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SAN ISIDRO — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Javier Paino 17.3%, Víctor Hugo Bazán 14.7%. Numerical gap 2.6 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 44.7%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

local · vote intention

CPI

Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

Reported margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points.

Population: San Martin De Porres district municipal ballot. Fieldwork 2026-08-18–2026-08-23 · published 2026-08-26. Sample 400.

Attached only to LIMA / LIMA / SAN MARTIN DE PORRES — District municipal ballot.

Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag

Peter Jaime 15.3%, Adolfo Mattos 10.5%. Numerical gap 4.8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 34.2%.

• CPI — Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents

national · presidential approval

AtlasIntel / Bloomberg

Presidential job approval

Named officeholder in this observation: José Balcázar

Reported margin of error: ±3 percentage points.

Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 982.

Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin

National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.

Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability

Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.

• AtlasIntel / Bloomberg — Presidential job approval

national · presidential approval

AtlasIntel / Bloomberg

Presidential job approval

Named officeholder in this observation: Keiko Fujimori

Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.

Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 1,769.

Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin

National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.

Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability

The July question evaluates outgoing José Balcázar and August evaluates Keiko Fujimori. No within-president change is computed. The new administration has a small positive approval balance and 16.9% unsure; this does not establish movement in regional or municipal voting intentions.

• AtlasIntel / Bloomberg — Presidential job approval