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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

MORANT BAY — Electoral division councillor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Jamaica · MORANT BAY / ST THOMAS · municipal · Electoral division councillorJM-W-ST-THOMAS-MORANT-BAY

Read the complete original research briefing

Individual ward ballot. Parent council records aggregate the same ballots and must not be added to ward votes. Includes a known by-election in the selected three-event sequence.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
MORANT BAY / ST THOMAS
Next election
2028-02
Linked upcoming event
next-6370f45cba62b7e029c2d62e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2028-02 is expected (not formally called). Month precision — no calendar day supplied. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024-11-22

Special · Preliminary · unknown

  • PNP51.4%
  • JLP48.6%
Results for event-72b872542761a4cc34f5d73b
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PNP · Rosemarie Shawjamaica/Sa58355df26/20242,09651.4%UnknownPreliminary
JLP · Winston Downiejamaica/Sa58355df26/20241,97848.6%UnknownPreliminary

2024-02-26

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • JLP43.1%
  • PNP55.6%
Results for event-75fba2cee5c6a963cfe0c018
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
JLPJLPjamaica/S975fca3559/20241,45643.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PNPPNPjamaica/S975fca3559/20241,87955.6%1Recorded

2016-11-28

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • JLP47.6%
  • PNP51.4%
Results for event-b0466ecb79c44df247122e9a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
JLPJLPjamaica/S375abb1313/20161,44747.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PNPPNPjamaica/S375abb1313/20161,56251.4%1Recorded

Other events (not selected cycles)

  • 2012-03-26 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Individual ward ballot. Parent council records aggregate the same ballots and must not be added to ward votes. Includes a known by-election in the selected three-event sequence.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=3.8218677301428983, previous_gap=12.68365817091454

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). JLP, PNP and Other (minor parties and independents). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["JLP","PNP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[43.65817091454273,56.34182908545727,0],[48.08906613492855,51.91093386507145,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

4.43percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). JLP, PNP and Other (minor parties and independents). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["JLP","PNP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[43.65817091454273,56.34182908545727,0],[48.08906613492855,51.91093386507145,0]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). JLP, PNP and Other (minor parties and independents). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["JLP","PNP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[43.65817091454273,56.34182908545727,0],[48.08906613492855,51.91093386507145,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

  • unresolved event · open

    Known replacement election retained in sequence; final vote vector or certification remains missing: {"jurisdiction_id": "JM-W-ST-THOMAS-MORANT-BAY", "event_id": "JM-W-ST-THOMAS-MORANT-BAY-BY-2024-11-22", "issue": "Known replacement election retained in sequence; final vote vector or certification remains missing", "source_id": "Sa58355df26"}

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “MORANT BAY — Electoral division councillor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/JM-W-ST-THOMAS-MORANT-BAY. Sources: jamaica--url-ea5b316db3ea705b2ff91ae8, jamaica--url-b1bfddcea4443c34b2ed3119, jamaica--url-74b9a8a4565d376c1ee70961, jamaica--url-5eba0e7de6d09ab6469c4a9b, jamaica--Sa58355df26, jamaica--S975fca3559, jamaica--S375abb1313, jamaica--S60dfdaaaba.