Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Source publication

MORANT BAY — Electoral division councillor

Original research briefing. Source qualifications and evidence gaps are retained; active scripts and styling have been removed for safe display.

Back to structured office record

MORANT BAY — Electoral division councillor
Latin America register

Jamaica · ST THOMAS

MORANT BAY — Electoral division councillor

All 228 electoral divisions now have individual ward records alongside the 15 council/mayor records, with three ordinary cycles and eight identified by-elections. Greater Portmore North 2017 has a certified final return; seven other by-elections retain preliminary or incomplete evidence and are unscored. Ward and whole-council totals overlap. The Portmore boundary bridge, full intervening-event audit and current control remain unresolved.

Election expectation2028-02
Imported event records4
Usable vote comparison cycles2 of 3
Seat comparison cycles2 of 3

Historical competition

Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.

Grouped party-share volatility: latest interval — points; earlier interval 4.4 points; two-interval mean — points.

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). JLP, PNP and Other (minor parties and independents). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.

Polling: no vetted current evidence included for this office.

Individual ward ballot. Parent council records aggregate the same ballots and must not be added to ward votes. Includes a known by-election in the selected three-event sequence.

Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3, Source 4

Electoral event evidence

Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.

2024-11-22 · by-election

Coverage: Preliminary or reported result; final vote vector not independently certified

Basis: Single ward vacancy

Source note: The article also calls the winner Yvonne Shaw. Candidate-name variation and final count require certification.

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
PNPRosemarie Shaw2,09651.45%—
JLPWinston Downie1,97848.55%—

Result source

2024-02-26 · ordinary

Coverage: Official ECJ final ward summary; seats from the reported plurality

Basis: One vote per elector for one ward councillor

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
JLP1,45643.66%0
PNP1,87956.34%1

Result source · ECJ summary PDF page 3, electoral division 10

2016-11-28 · ordinary

Coverage: Official ECJ final ward summary; seats from the reported plurality

Basis: One vote per elector for one ward councillor

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
JLP1,44748.09%0
PNP1,56251.91%1

Result source · ECJ summary PDF page 3, electoral division 10

2012-03-26 · ordinary

Coverage: Official ECJ final ward summary; seats from the reported plurality

Basis: One vote per elector for one ward councillor

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
JLP1,72643.62%0
PNP2,23156.38%1

Result source · ECJ summary PDF page 3, electoral division 10

Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record JM-W-ST-THOMAS-MORANT-BAY.