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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

Ceará — State legislative assembly

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Brazil · Ceará / CE · regional · State legislative assemblyBR-CE-A

Read the complete original research briefing

First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Ceará / CE
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-9fa9b427e41628b8ae9f18d2
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PDT24.6%
  • PT16.0%
  • PL9.8%
  • UNIÃO8.1%
  • MDB7.4%
  • PSD6.6%
  • PP5.9%
  • REPUBLICANOS3.8%
  • PSDB3.2%
  • PSOL3.2%
  • AVANTE2.8%
  • PMN2.8%
  • CIDADANIA2.2%
  • PC do B2.1%
  • PV0.7%
  • AGIR0.4%
  • PSB0.3%
  • PROS0.1%
  • PODE0.1%
  • UP0.0%
  • REDE0.0%
Results for event-9bd12bd02b52eafe0bc3670d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PDTbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20221,238,56224.6%13Recorded
PTbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022807,06916%8Recorded
PLbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022495,2619.8%4Recorded
UNIÃObrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022406,2558.1%4Recorded
MDBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022371,6407.4%3Recorded
PSDbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022330,3996.6%3Recorded
PPbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022295,1955.9%3Recorded
REPUBLICANOSbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022193,5223.8%2Recorded
PSDBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022158,9553.2%1Recorded
PSOLbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022158,9403.2%1Recorded
AVANTEbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022141,8692.8%1Recorded
PMNbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022140,8342.8%1Recorded
CIDADANIAbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022113,0602.2%1Recorded
PC do Bbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022106,4352.1%1Recorded
PVbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202237,0690.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AGIRbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202218,6280.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202214,2620.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PROSbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20226,5960.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PODEbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20224,2140.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UPbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20221,6620%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
REDEbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20228060%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2018-10-07

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PDT29.4%
  • PT8.6%
  • MDB7.4%
  • PATRI7.4%
  • PP5.0%
  • PROS4.5%
  • PSDB4.5%
  • PSL4.2%
  • PC do B4.1%
  • PSD3.6%
  • SOLIDARIEDADE2.9%
  • PPS2.6%
  • PSOL2.5%
  • PRB2.4%
  • PR1.9%
  • PSB1.9%
  • DEM1.6%
  • PMN1.4%
  • DC0.9%
  • PPL0.7%
  • PTB0.6%
  • PV0.6%
  • PODE0.5%
  • AVANTE0.4%
  • REDE0.1%
  • PRTB0.1%
  • PHS0.0%
  • PRP0.0%
  • PSTU0.0%
  • PSC0.0%
Results for event-2c3f2f12f439f4ba353457f9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PDTbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20181,347,56729.4%14Recorded
PTbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018392,6018.6%4Recorded
MDBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018340,0267.4%4Recorded
PATRIbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018339,6117.4%3Recorded
PPbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018230,0735%3Recorded
PROSbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018206,0864.5%2Recorded
PSDBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018204,4194.5%2Recorded
PSLbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018193,9354.2%2Recorded
PC do Bbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018190,0464.1%2Recorded
PSDbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018166,6513.6%2Recorded
SOLIDARIEDADEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018133,1652.9%2Recorded
PPSbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018118,2652.6%1Recorded
PSOLbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018113,1592.5%1Recorded
PRBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018108,5652.4%1Recorded
PRbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201888,4381.9%1Recorded
PSBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201886,7381.9%1Recorded
DEMbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201872,9261.6%1Recorded
PMNbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201862,1351.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
DCbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201841,9880.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPLbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201833,5680.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PTBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201828,8850.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PVbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201828,4930.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PODEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201820,7150.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AVANTEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201816,4810.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
REDEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20184,5630.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRTBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20183,3320.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHSbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20182,1440%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRPbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20182,0790%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSTUbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20181,7660%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSCbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20181,5270%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-10-05

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PROS20.6%
  • PMDB8.8%
  • PT8.4%
  • PR7.7%
  • PDT7.3%
  • SD5.5%
  • PSD4.5%
  • PC do B4.2%
  • PP3.2%
  • PSDC2.9%
  • PEN2.6%
  • PRB2.4%
  • PSC2.3%
  • DEM2.2%
  • PSOL2.1%
  • PSDB1.9%
  • PPS1.9%
  • PV1.6%
  • PTC1.5%
  • PTN1.5%
  • PSL1.4%
  • PRP1.3%
  • PHS1.2%
  • PMN0.9%
  • PT do B0.7%
  • PSB0.3%
  • PSTU0.3%
  • PRTB0.2%
  • PTB0.2%
  • PPL0.2%
  • PCB0.1%
Results for event-73922bc9420f442e7c53b34f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PROSbrazil/S2c70216745/2014919,36720.6%12Recorded
PMDBbrazil/S2c70216745/2014392,6958.8%6Recorded
PTbrazil/S2c70216745/2014375,9378.4%2Recorded
PRbrazil/S2c70216745/2014345,4977.7%2Recorded
PDTbrazil/S2c70216745/2014326,8417.3%3Recorded
SDbrazil/S2c70216745/2014246,6365.5%2Recorded
PSDbrazil/S2c70216745/2014198,6224.5%2Recorded
PC do Bbrazil/S2c70216745/2014187,9064.2%2Recorded
PPbrazil/S2c70216745/2014141,5573.2%2Recorded
PSDCbrazil/S2c70216745/2014129,5862.9%1Recorded
PENbrazil/S2c70216745/2014114,7752.6%1Recorded
PRBbrazil/S2c70216745/2014107,4902.4%1Recorded
PSCbrazil/S2c70216745/2014103,6792.3%1Recorded
DEMbrazil/S2c70216745/2014100,1882.2%1Recorded
PSOLbrazil/S2c70216745/201494,0472.1%1Recorded
PSDBbrazil/S2c70216745/201486,7911.9%1Recorded
PPSbrazil/S2c70216745/201483,1871.9%1Recorded
PVbrazil/S2c70216745/201473,4191.6%1Recorded
PTCbrazil/S2c70216745/201467,1681.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PTNbrazil/S2c70216745/201465,4941.5%1Recorded
PSLbrazil/S2c70216745/201460,8231.4%1Recorded
PRPbrazil/S2c70216745/201455,9251.3%1Recorded
PHSbrazil/S2c70216745/201452,0911.2%1Recorded
PMNbrazil/S2c70216745/201441,9650.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PT do Bbrazil/S2c70216745/201430,4660.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSBbrazil/S2c70216745/201415,0610.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSTUbrazil/S2c70216745/201411,2630.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRTBbrazil/S2c70216745/201410,5900.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PTBbrazil/S2c70216745/201410,0170.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPLbrazil/S2c70216745/20148,3660.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PCBbrazil/S2c70216745/20144,5200.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

37.140–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.559275082107888, oldest_gap=11.80357819608339, previous_gap=20.851027315381597

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

19.76percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[16.009357234628908,3.153097664797481,7.372006015195092,5.855611117359582,0.2829069793044678,24.5686323167368,6.553932341552156,3.152800118542428,9.824203721589539,23.227452490293548],[8.572173433448029,4.46334859333525,7.42423438524507,5.023486079642407,1.893864710661499,29.423200748829625,3.638710229616194,2.470749115655705,1.9309830441269298,35.15924965943929],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[16.009357234628908,3.153097664797481,7.372006015195092,5.855611117359582,0.2829069793044678,24.5686323167368,6.553932341552156,3.152800118542428,9.824203721589539,23.227452490293548],[8.572173433448029,4.46334859333525,7.42423438524507,5.023486079642407,1.893864710661499,29.423200748829625,3.638710229616194,2.470749115655705,1.9309830441269298,35.15924965943929],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[16.009357234628908,3.153097664797481,7.372006015195092,5.855611117359582,0.2829069793044678,24.5686323167368,6.553932341552156,3.152800118542428,9.824203721589539,23.227452490293548],[8.572173433448029,4.46334859333525,7.42423438524507,5.023486079642407,1.893864710661499,29.423200748829625,3.638710229616194,2.470749115655705,1.9309830441269298,35.15924965943929],null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. Roraima legal certification, Rio and other specific replacement/current-control cases remain open. Eight municipal replacement tickets are tracked; ordinary municipal renewals are outside the window. Public-vote baselines for Alagoas and Amazonas are supplied separately from their indirect selections. Roraima’s primary 2010 cycle is recovered; the June 2026 proclamation is still unresolved. Rio’s signed 2026 legislative retotalization verifies the imported 2022 votes and seats, with 70 named elected deputies added; later membership and governing-coalition control still need dated verification.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Ceará — State legislative assembly.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/BR-CE-A. Sources: brazil--url-580aebec6bb5c27e76b98bb4, brazil--url-ef95aa16df1e62f699a27949, brazil--url-653ade48bf64a7388c4b910b, brazil--S5cd0a4c40e, brazil--S0d7ac4a666, brazil--S2c70216745.