Office briefing
NATALIO / ITAPUA — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Paraguay · NATALIO / ITAPUA / ITAPUA · municipal · MayorPY-07-037-M
Read the complete original research briefing
Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- NATALIO / ITAPUA / ITAPUA
- Next election
- 2026-10-04
- Linked upcoming event
- next-d190f90de6fb53c7a121d669
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2021-10-10
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA NATALIO PARA TODOS46.3%
- PARTIDO COLORADO39.6%
- CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU9.3%
- PARTIDO FRENTE AMPLIO2.3%
- MOV POLITICO INDEPENDIENTE RENACER NATALIO1.9%
- PARTIDO ENCUENTRO NACIONAL0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA NATALIO PARA TODOS · MARCO MAIDANA OJEDA | ANPTparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 3,710 | 46.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLORADO · LURDES GRISELDA GARAY TORRES | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 3,169 | 39.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU · FRANCISCO ISAAC MORENO ARCE | CNFGparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 747 | 9.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO FRENTE AMPLIO · JOSE GOLASIK BORICHUK | PFAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 182 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOV POLITICO INDEPENDIENTE RENACER NATALIO · LUIS ANTONIO BRIZUELA DUARTE | MORENAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 156 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ENCUENTRO NACIONAL · JUAN DE ROSA ROMERO | PENparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 44 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-11-15
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO COLORADO49.7%
- CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU28.9%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO21.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO COLORADO · RAMON SANTACRUZ SHNEIDER CASTILLO | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 3,006 | 49.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU · JORGE GALARZA IBARRA | FGparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 1,748 | 28.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · FABIO SEBASTIAN ZARZA RAMIREZ | PLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 1,296 | 21.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2010-11-07
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO COLORADO46.2%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO39.4%
- UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS14.2%
- PARTIDO POPULAR TEKOJOJA0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO COLORADO · LILIAN MARTINEZ DE KROHU | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 2,417 | 46.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · LUCIANO RAMON MARTINEZ IRRAZABAL | PLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 2,061 | 39.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS · LUIS HERMINIO ENCISO GARCIA | UNACEparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 742 | 14.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POPULAR TEKOJOJA · JUAN DE DIOS MOREL LEGUIZAMON | PPTparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 12 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
Other events (not selected cycles)
- 1996-11-17 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
- 2001-11-18 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
- 2006-11-19 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI45.140–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=6.755744255744254, oldest_gap=6.804281345565748, previous_gap=20.793388429752063
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility51.1percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[39.57292707292707,0,0.5494505494505495,0,0,9.328171828171827,50.54945054945055],[49.68595041322314,21.421487603305785,0,0,0,28.892561983471076,0],[46.19648318042813,39.392201834862384,0,0,14.181957186544343,0,0.22935779816513763]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility32.38percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[39.57292707292707,0,0.5494505494505495,0,0,9.328171828171827,50.54945054945055],[49.68595041322314,21.421487603305785,0,0,0,28.892561983471076,0],[46.19648318042813,39.392201834862384,0,0,14.181957186544343,0,0.22935779816513763]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility41.74percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[39.57292707292707,0,0.5494505494505495,0,0,9.328171828171827,50.54945054945055],[49.68595041322314,21.421487603305785,0,0,0,28.892561983471076,0],[46.19648318042813,39.392201834862384,0,0,14.181957186544343,0,0.22935779816513763]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification. Replacement elections sometimes contain only winner/seat evidence. New municipalities, boundary/party continuity and dated control remain incomplete. The separate ordinary-election baseline helps historical comparison but does not fill replacement losing-vote gaps.
Sources
- Paraguay: https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv · rights unknown
- Paraguay: Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv · rights unknown
- Paraguay: Electos-dhont-1996-a-2025-munic-gene-complem-votospreferentes-251125.csv · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “NATALIO / ITAPUA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PY-07-037-M. Sources: paraguay--url-7428974d1a7032fc28d114b3, paraguay--S82789e1ede, paraguay--Sebfa7a567d.