Office briefing
INDEPENDENCIA / GUAIRA — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Paraguay · INDEPENDENCIA / GUAIRA / GUAIRA · municipal · MayorPY-04-013-M
Read the complete original research briefing
Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- INDEPENDENCIA / GUAIRA / GUAIRA
- Next election
- 2026-10-04
- Linked upcoming event
- next-b9979e904a15a5c7d347dc5d
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2021-10-10
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO COLORADO60.8%
- ALIANZA INDEPENDENCIA PYAHU31.0%
- PARTIDO ENCUENTRO NACIONAL7.7%
- CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO COLORADO · JOSE ANTONIO RESQUIN ACOSTA | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 5,735 | 60.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA INDEPENDENCIA PYAHU · NELSON BENITEZ LOPEZ | AIPparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 2,918 | 31% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ENCUENTRO NACIONAL · EVA MAGDALENA CRISTALDO RESQUIN | PENparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 722 | 7.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU · ROSA ELENA SANTA CRUZ ADORNO | CNFGparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 52 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-11-15
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO COLORADO51.8%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO35.5%
- CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU11.8%
- PARTIDO UNACE0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO POLITICO DE LA A0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO COLORADO · FRANCISCO ARNALDO CHAVEZ GONZALEZ | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 3,441 | 51.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · VICTOR MANUEL FONSECA LEGAL | PLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 2,362 | 35.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU · MARCOS MIGUEL DOLDAN VAZQUEZ | FGparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 783 | 11.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNACE · ROBERTO MANUEL CUBAS CACERES | UNACEparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 41 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLITICO DE LA A · RUBEN BARRETO GONZALEZ | MDAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 21 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2010-11-07
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO COLORADO52.5%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO34.5%
- UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS9.8%
- MOVIMIENTO 20 DE ABRIL3.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO COLORADO · JOSE ELIGIO CHAVEZ SILVERO | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 3,518 | 52.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · ARIEL PERFECTO FONSECA LEGAL | PLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 2,310 | 34.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS · ERWIN VOGEL TILLMANN | UNACEparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 659 | 9.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO 20 DE ABRIL · NIMIA BEATRIZ GONZALEZ DE OVIEDO | M20Aparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 218 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
Other events (not selected cycles)
- 1996-11-17 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
- 2001-11-18 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
- 2006-11-19 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=29.882253102789857, oldest_gap=18.01640566741238, previous_gap=16.230445246690728
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility47.37percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[60.83589689190622,0,7.658852232947916,0,0,0.5516070860294897,30.953643789116366],[51.75992779783393,35.529482551143204,0,0,0.6167268351383874,11.777978339350181,0.315884476534296],[52.468307233407906,34.45190156599553,0,0,9.82848620432513,0,3.2513049962714393]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility12.86percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[60.83589689190622,0,7.658852232947916,0,0,0.5516070860294897,30.953643789116366],[51.75992779783393,35.529482551143204,0,0,0.6167268351383874,11.777978339350181,0.315884476534296],[52.468307233407906,34.45190156599553,0,0,9.82848620432513,0,3.2513049962714393]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility30.11percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[60.83589689190622,0,7.658852232947916,0,0,0.5516070860294897,30.953643789116366],[51.75992779783393,35.529482551143204,0,0,0.6167268351383874,11.777978339350181,0.315884476534296],[52.468307233407906,34.45190156599553,0,0,9.82848620432513,0,3.2513049962714393]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification. Replacement elections sometimes contain only winner/seat evidence. New municipalities, boundary/party continuity and dated control remain incomplete. The separate ordinary-election baseline helps historical comparison but does not fill replacement losing-vote gaps.
Sources
- Paraguay: https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv · rights unknown
- Paraguay: Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv · rights unknown
- Paraguay: Electos-dhont-1996-a-2025-munic-gene-complem-votospreferentes-251125.csv · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “INDEPENDENCIA / GUAIRA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PY-04-013-M. Sources: paraguay--url-7428974d1a7032fc28d114b3, paraguay--S82789e1ede, paraguay--Sebfa7a567d.