Peru · LIMA

LIMA / LIMA / SANTIAGO DE SURCO — District municipal ballot

1,942 main regional/municipal ballots plus 3,086 provisionally tracked populated-centre slates: 3,085 in INEI’s 2026 directory plus one unresolved older-directory entry. Restored 102 unaffected 2022 returns excluded by an overly broad malformed-row rule; five affected units remain quarantined. Pión’s failed 2022–2025 attempts are excluded from completed cycles; Cajamarca Ninabamba’s final 2025 election replaces its failed attempts in the selected series. Official centre calls, seat proclamations and current control remain open. JNE 0590-2025 resolves Ninabamba with final 2025 votes and six elected authorities, and Pión with a final annulment and continuation of its 2018 authorities. Finally annulled attempts are not counted as unresolved decisions or valid mandates. The 2026 directory adds 78 office records, a documented Manitea Alta code/district bridge, three name corrections and 3,085 dated mayor records as of 13 March 2026. It is not the 3,382-roll election register; 26 cohort matches remain separately corroborated.

Historical competition

Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.

Provisional imported-series CI: 7.7/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.

Grouped party-share volatility: latest interval 48.0 points; earlier interval 33.4 points; two-interval mean 40.7 points.

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.

Local polling evidence: Santiago De Surco district municipal ballot — CPI; fieldwork 2026-08-14 to 2026-08-19. Sample 350; reported margin of error ±5.20 percentage points. Arturo Bobbio 30.6%, Juan Palma 22.6%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 19.1%. Poll report

National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-03. Sample 982; reported margin of error ±3.00 percentage points. Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline. Poll report

National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-03. Sample 1,769; reported margin of error ±2.00 percentage points. The July question evaluates outgoing José Balcázar and August evaluates Keiko Fujimori. No within-president change is computed. The new administration has a small positive approval balance and 16.9% unsure; this does not establish movement in regional or municipal voting intentions. Poll report

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3

Electoral event evidence

Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.

Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record PE-9233f8366c44b7.