Office briefing
GAYLE — Electoral division councillor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Jamaica · GAYLE / ST MARY · municipal · Electoral division councillorJM-W-ST-MARY-GAYLE
Read the complete original research briefing
Individual ward ballot. Parent council records aggregate the same ballots and must not be added to ward votes.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- GAYLE / ST MARY
- Next election
- 2028-02
- Linked upcoming event
- next-201cf611bce423dd29c765ff
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2028-02 is expected (not formally called). Month precision — no calendar day supplied. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2024-02-26
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- Independent — GAYLE (IND A)0.4%
- JLP48.6%
- PNP50.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent — GAYLE (IND A) | IND Ajamaica/S975fca3559/2024 | 13 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| JLP | JLPjamaica/S975fca3559/2024 | 1,405 | 48.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PNP | PNPjamaica/S975fca3559/2024 | 1,452 | 50.2% | 1 | Recorded |
2016-11-28
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- JLP63.5%
- PNP35.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JLP | JLPjamaica/S375abb1313/2016 | 1,798 | 63.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| PNP | PNPjamaica/S375abb1313/2016 | 1,009 | 35.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2012-03-26
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- JLP51.9%
- PNP47.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JLP | JLPjamaica/S60dfdaaaba/2012 | 1,649 | 51.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PNP | PNPjamaica/S60dfdaaaba/2012 | 1,519 | 47.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI50.870–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.6376306620209036, oldest_gap=4.103535353535349, previous_gap=28.108300676879225
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility15.1percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). JLP, PNP and Other (minor parties and independents). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["JLP","PNP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[48.954703832752614,50.59233449477352,0.4529616724738676],[64.05415033843961,35.94584966156039,0],[52.051767676767675,47.948232323232325,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility12percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). JLP, PNP and Other (minor parties and independents). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["JLP","PNP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[48.954703832752614,50.59233449477352,0.4529616724738676],[64.05415033843961,35.94584966156039,0],[52.051767676767675,47.948232323232325,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility13.55percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). JLP, PNP and Other (minor parties and independents). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["JLP","PNP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[48.954703832752614,50.59233449477352,0.4529616724738676],[64.05415033843961,35.94584966156039,0],[52.051767676767675,47.948232323232325,0]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
No open research issues attached to this office.
Sources
- Jamaica: https://www.ecj.com.jm/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2024LocalGovernmentSummaryResults.pdf · rights unknown
- Jamaica: https://www.ecj.com.jm/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/2016LocalGovernmentElectionSummary.pdf · rights unknown
- Jamaica: https://www.ecj.com.jm/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/2012ParishCouncilSummary.pdf · rights unknown
- Jamaica: jm_2024_summary.pdf · rights unknown
- Jamaica: jm_2016_summary.pdf · rights unknown
- Jamaica: jm_2012_summary.pdf · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “GAYLE — Electoral division councillor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/JM-W-ST-MARY-GAYLE. Sources: jamaica--url-b1bfddcea4443c34b2ed3119, jamaica--url-74b9a8a4565d376c1ee70961, jamaica--url-5eba0e7de6d09ab6469c4a9b, jamaica--S975fca3559, jamaica--S375abb1313, jamaica--S60dfdaaaba.