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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Guastatoya — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

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Guastatoya — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
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Guatemala · El Progreso

Guastatoya — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

Election expectation2027-06-27
Imported event records3
Usable vote comparison cycles3 of 3
Seat comparison cycles3 of 3

Historical competition

Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.

Provisional imported-series CI: 52.3/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.

Grouped party-share volatility: latest interval 57.4 points; earlier interval 97.9 points; two-interval mean 77.7 points.

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.

Polling: no vetted current evidence included for this office.

Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.

Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3

Electoral event evidence

Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.

2023-06-25 · Final municipal declaration

Coverage: Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats

Basis: Shared mayor/council party ballot. Valid affirmative party votes exclude blank/null ballots. Seats include mayor, syndics and titular councillors; substitutes are excluded.

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
VALORJOSÉ ELIAS HERRERA GUERRA7,34348.98%6
VAMOS6,68744.60%2
AZUL4783.19%0
UNE3262.17%0
CABAL1060.71%0
CAMBIO530.35%0

Result source · PDF pages 438, 439

2019-06-16 · Final municipal declaration

Coverage: Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats

Basis: Shared mayor/council party ballot. Valid affirmative party votes exclude blank/null ballots. Seats include mayor, syndics and titular councillors; substitutes are excluded.

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
UNEJORGE ANTONIO ORELLANA PINTO7,02351.80%6
BIEN4,48033.05%1
CREO6204.57%0
VAMOS3472.56%0
TODOS2802.07%0
PAN2561.89%0
VALOR1621.19%0
FCN-NACIÓN1601.18%0
FUERZA1150.85%0
PHG1140.84%0

Result source · PDF pages 469

2015-09-06 · Final municipal declaration

Coverage: Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats

Basis: Shared mayor/council party ballot. Valid affirmative party votes exclude blank/null ballots. Seats include mayor, syndics and titular councillors; substitutes are excluded.

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
LIDERJorge Antonio Orellana Pinto7,60254.62%5
PPSaúl Belteton Herrera5,80141.68%2
TODOSGuillermo Morales Ortega5143.69%0

Result source · PDF pages 348

Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record GT-M-04-01.