Office briefing
Guastatoya — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Guastatoya / El Progreso · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-04-01
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Guastatoya / El Progreso
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-9175b677ce1c4ee0b9eeeffa
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VALOR49.0%
- VAMOS44.6%
- AZUL3.2%
- UNE2.2%
- CABAL0.7%
- CAMBIO0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALOR · JOSÉ ELIAS HERRERA GUERRA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 7,343 | 49% | 6 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 6,687 | 44.6% | 2 | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 478 | 3.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 326 | 2.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 106 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CAMBIO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 53 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE51.8%
- BIEN33.0%
- CREO4.6%
- VAMOS2.6%
- TODOS2.1%
- PAN1.9%
- VALOR1.2%
- FCN-NACIÓN1.2%
- FUERZA0.8%
- PHG0.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · JORGE ANTONIO ORELLANA PINTO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 7,023 | 51.8% | 6 | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 4,480 | 33% | 1 | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 620 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 347 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 280 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PAN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 256 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 162 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACIÓN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 160 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 115 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PHG | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 114 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- LIDER54.6%
- PP41.7%
- TODOS3.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIDER · Jorge Antonio Orellana Pinto | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 7,602 | 54.6% | 5 | Recorded |
| PP · Saúl Belteton Herrera | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 5,801 | 41.7% | 2 | Recorded |
| TODOS · Guillermo Morales Ortega | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 514 | 3.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI52.270–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=4.375375175081707, oldest_gap=12.941007401020336, previous_gap=18.75783727963414
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility57.45percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[2.1743480290802375,44.600813713066096,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.22483825785366],[51.803496348749725,2.5595633252194436,2.065353691819724,0,0,0,0,4.573283174743675,1.180202109611271,0,0,37.818101349856164],[0,0,3.6933247107853706,0,0,54.623841345117484,41.68283394409715,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility97.93percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[2.1743480290802375,44.600813713066096,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.22483825785366],[51.803496348749725,2.5595633252194436,2.065353691819724,0,0,0,0,4.573283174743675,1.180202109611271,0,0,37.818101349856164],[0,0,3.6933247107853706,0,0,54.623841345117484,41.68283394409715,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility77.69percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[2.1743480290802375,44.600813713066096,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.22483825785366],[51.803496348749725,2.5595633252194436,2.065353691819724,0,0,0,0,4.573283174743675,1.180202109611271,0,0,37.818101349856164],[0,0,3.6933247107853706,0,0,54.623841345117484,41.68283394409715,0,0,0,0,0]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Antonio Orellana Pinto | Alcalde | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Karen Lissette Trabanino Sabán | Síndico I | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Alvaro Antonio Orellana Orellana | Síndico II | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Rubén Antonio Valdez | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Nery Rolando Archila Orellana | Concejal 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Guillermo Enrique Estrada Ramírez | Concejal 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Jorge Mario Veliz Estrada | Concejal 3 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Edwing Osvaldo López García | Concejal 4 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Jeremías Herrera Veliz | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Herson Benjamín De León Ortíz | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| JORGE ANTONIO ORELLANA PINTO | ALCALDE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ÁLVARO ANTONIO ORELLANA ORELLANA | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MAIRA ELIZABETH BELTETON CORONADO DE CASTILLO | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ROBERTO ARRIOLA MONZÓN | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| NERY ROLANDO ARCHILA ORELLANA | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| LESTER LEOPOLDO RODRÍGUEZ CALDERÓN | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| WILSON ARCHILA CERVANTES | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| HERSON BENJAMÍN DE LEÓN ORTIZ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | BIEN | unknown |
| JEREMIAS HERRERA VELIZ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| OLIVERIO RODRÍGUEZ SÁNCHEZ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | BIEN | unknown |
| JOSÉ ELIAS HERRERA GUERRA | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| BYRON FERNANDO CALDERON FERRERA | SINDICO I | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| EDUARDO ORTEGA LOAIZA | SINDICO II | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| HERNAN ARCHILA MORALES | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| ERASMO BELTETON CONTRERAS | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| EDGAR ERNESTO ORELLANA RUIZ | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| BYRON ORELLANA VELIZ | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NERY ROLANDO ARCHILA ORELLANA | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| RAUL AGUILAR POLANCO | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| JULIO MAURICIO MARROQUIN GONZALEZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| ALVARO ANTONIO ORELLANA ORELLANA | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Guastatoya — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-04-01. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.