Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Source publication

San Raimundo — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

Original research briefing. Source qualifications and evidence gaps are retained; active scripts and styling have been removed for safe display.

Back to structured office record

San Raimundo — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Latin America register

Guatemala · Guatemala

San Raimundo — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

Election expectation2027-06-27
Imported event records3
Usable vote comparison cycles3 of 3
Seat comparison cycles3 of 3

Historical competition

Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.

Provisional imported-series CI: 87.9/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.

Grouped party-share volatility: latest interval 43.4 points; earlier interval 57.9 points; two-interval mean 50.6 points.

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.

Polling: no vetted current evidence included for this office.

Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.

Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3

Electoral event evidence

Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.

2023-06-25 · Final municipal declaration

Coverage: Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats

Basis: Shared mayor/council party ballot. Valid affirmative party votes exclude blank/null ballots. Seats include mayor, syndics and titular councillors; substitutes are excluded.

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
DESANRAYFLORENTÍN LUIS ALVARO QUECHE SARCEÑO1,82615.35%4
VAMOS1,65913.95%1
UNE1,61913.61%1
VOS1,43112.03%1
ELEFANTE1,1029.27%1
VIVA8927.50%0
CABAL8557.19%0
PODEMOS6615.56%0
VALOR6145.16%0
AZUL5154.33%0
UR2632.21%0
BIEN2251.89%0
SEMILLA2191.84%0
P A N110.09%0

Result source · PDF pages 388, 389

2019-06-16 · Final municipal declaration

Coverage: Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats

Basis: Shared mayor/council party ballot. Valid affirmative party votes exclude blank/null ballots. Seats include mayor, syndics and titular councillors; substitutes are excluded.

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
UCNJOEL HUMBERTO CHOY YOC2,46323.14%5
UNE2,09619.69%1
VAMOS1,68615.84%1
FCN-NACION1,26711.90%1
PHG1,11710.49%0
CCDSR1,11510.47%0
FUERZA3072.88%0
SEMILLA2362.22%0
AVANZA2132.00%0
VALOR1461.37%0

Result source · PDF pages 423

2015-09-06 · Final municipal declaration

Coverage: Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats

Basis: Shared mayor/council party ballot. Valid affirmative party votes exclude blank/null ballots. Seats include mayor, syndics and titular councillors; substitutes are excluded.

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
PPFernando Antonio Ortiz Locon2,51427.55%5
LIDERJuan Ramon Tepeu Cojón2,02322.17%1
UNECarlos Enrique García Mansilla1,55517.04%1
UCNJoel Humberto Choy Yoc1,09111.96%1
CREO- UnionistaClementino Alvarado Márquez7398.10%0
TODOSPedro Noe Araujo García4965.44%0
PRICésar Augusto Chávez Quiran4554.99%0
VIVACarlos Antonio Cordova Sánchez2522.76%0

Result source · PDF pages 332

Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record GT-M-01-11.