Office briefing

COTOPAXI — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · COTOPAXI / COTOPAXI · regional · PrefectEC-P-5

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: COTOPAXI / COTOPAXI
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-bf62469e949bd6831b0c8321
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK19.0%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA18.2%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES17.5%
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR15.5%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA11.3%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA11.2%
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO4.2%
RETO ES LA OPCION3.0%

Results for event-200c3f5d1cfd518737f58e2e
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LOURDES LICENIA TIBAN GUALA	7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	50,809	19%	1	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · CESAR UMAJINGA	42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	48,468	18.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · TANIA VASQUEZ	99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	46,745	17.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · ARTURO UGSHA	231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	41,372	15.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · ANGEL TIPANTUÑA	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	30,123	11.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JANIO BUSTILLOS LOPEZ	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	29,909	11.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · LUIS GILBERTO GUAMANGATE ANTE	124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	11,249	4.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
RETO ES LA OPCION · JAIME ZAMBRANO LAVERDE	1014ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	8,072	3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

ALIANZA UNIDAD POR COTOPAXI31.9%
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA22.4%
ALIANZA UNIDAD CIUDADANA COTOPAXENSE12.1%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES11.6%
ALIANZA AVANZA 8 - PSC 67.3%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL4.9%
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO3.7%
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO ORGANIZACION PROGRESISTA CIUDADANA, OPCION2.8%
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.8%
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.4%

Results for event-92d50b8b39cbe9cc6d49ff3e
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
ALIANZA UNIDAD POR COTOPAXI · JORGE GUAMAN	511ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	77,347	31.9%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · CESAR UMAJINGA	37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	54,344	22.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDAD CIUDADANA COTOPAXENSE · HECTOR GONZALEZ	730ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	29,371	12.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · GUIDO DEL TORO VITERI	22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	28,175	11.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA AVANZA 8 - PSC 6 · VICENTE GUAMAN	506ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	17,676	7.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · RAMIRO VELA	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	11,983	4.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · BLANCA GUAMANGATE	145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	8,990	3.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO ORGANIZACION PROGRESISTA CIUDADANA, OPCION · LUIS SALAZAR	74ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	6,751	2.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · NICOLAS TOVAR	235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,327	1.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · ANITA DEL CARMEN ROMERO TIXI	158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,475	1.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

UNIDAD DE LA IZQUIERDA - COTOPAXI MPD LISTA 15 - PACHAKUTIK LISTA 1830.4%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS28.0%
PARTIDO AVANZA15.7%
MOVIMIENTO SUMA10.4%
MOVIMIENTO CREO10.1%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO3.0%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO ORGANIZACIÓN PROGRESISTA CIUDADANA2.4%

Results for event-0b101d6c2e41d0180cc2b98b
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
UNIDAD DE LA IZQUIERDA - COTOPAXI MPD LISTA 15 - PACHAKUTIK LISTA 18 · GUAMAN CORONEL JORGE GONZALO	5005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	69,081	30.4%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · GUAMANGATE ANTE BLANCA GRACIELA	3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	63,638	28%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · AMORES BENALCAZAR JUAN ROGER ROBERT	6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	35,719	15.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · VACA ROJAS MIGUEL ARMANDO	13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	23,527	10.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · CORONEL PAEZ OSWALDO MARCELO	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	22,958	10.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · VELOZ CORRAL SEGUNDO EDWIN	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	6,718	3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO ORGANIZACIÓN PROGRESISTA CIUDADANA · GUANOLUISA ZAPATA EDISON RAMIRO	5004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	5,422	2.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

81.940–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.8776106198007838, oldest_gap=2.3971320734774046, previous_gap=9.488159908265583

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

24.95percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,19.04763689938406,17.52409586612033,0,0,63.42826723449561],[0,0,0,11.62148004240242,22.415535454279222,0,65.96298450331835],[0,15.730876452790636,0,10.110850292650058,10.361441538251498,28.026582930728477,35.77024878557933]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

43.76percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,19.04763689938406,17.52409586612033,0,0,63.42826723449561],[0,0,0,11.62148004240242,22.415535454279222,0,65.96298450331835],[0,15.730876452790636,0,10.110850292650058,10.361441538251498,28.026582930728477,35.77024878557933]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

34.35percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,19.04763689938406,17.52409586612033,0,0,63.42826723449561],[0,0,0,11.62148004240242,22.415535454279222,0,65.96298450331835],[0,15.730876452790636,0,10.110850292650058,10.361441538251498,28.026582930728477,35.77024878557933]]

Source-reported control: Lourdes Tibán Guala; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

393,965

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": null,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 5,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 393965,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-5",
  "name": "COTOPAXI",
  "office": "Prefect",
  "precinct_rows": [
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  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “COTOPAXI — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-5. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.