Office briefing

BOLÍVAR — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · regional · PrefectEC-P-2

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-1481cd5fc2c73a2337dc5351
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK42.2%
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR BOLIVAR22.0%
ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR12.4%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO7.4%
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO6.2%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA5.0%
CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR2.8%
JUSTICIA SOCIAL BOLIVARENSE1.9%

Results for event-615b15d20ef52748634c11b1
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ANIBAL CORONEL	7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	49,793	42.2%	1	Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR BOLIVAR · JAVIER BOSQUEZ	1125ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	25,993	22%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR · FELIPE GONZALEZ	1084ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	14,668	12.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · WILLIAN MONTERO	34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	8,760	7.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · ANGEL PACHALA	226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	7,311	6.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · FAUSTO BAYES	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	5,841	5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR · PAOLA TAMAYO	1141ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	3,338	2.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
JUSTICIA SOCIAL BOLIVARENSE · WILLIAN ENRIQUE AGUAGUIÑA	1131ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	2,255	1.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR54.4%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA29.6%
ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE9.9%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ6.1%

Results for event-c938600b811b4c609a865fd7
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR · VINICIO COLOMA	548ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	63,005	54.4%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · ANIBAL CORONEL	13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	34,290	29.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE · WILLIAN MONTERO	501ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	11,418	9.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · AURELIO CHACHA	198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	7,001	6.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO SUMA66.1%
ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE25.7%
MOVIMIENTO CREO8.2%

Results for event-c2fe13455391fada3490ea3c
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · COLOMA ROMERO ANGEL VINICIO	13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	67,921	66.1%	1	Recorded
ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE · CHAVES DE MORA CARLOS MARCELO	2004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	26,400	25.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · GARCIA GALLEGOS KLEVER HERNAN	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	8,402	8.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=20.176502004933916, oldest_gap=40.42035376692659, previous_gap=24.81549337158857

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

42.21percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,42.21212455175103,0,0,0,57.78787544824896],[0,0,0,0,0,29.633406502238277,70.36659349776173],[0,0,0,8.179278253166283,66.12053775688015,0,25.700183989953565]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

74.3percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,42.21212455175103,0,0,0,57.78787544824896],[0,0,0,0,0,29.633406502238277,70.36659349776173],[0,0,0,8.179278253166283,66.12053775688015,0,25.700183989953565]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

58.26percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,42.21212455175103,0,0,0,57.78787544824896],[0,0,0,0,0,29.633406502238277,70.36659349776173],[0,0,0,8.179278253166283,66.12053775688015,0,25.700183989953565]]

Source-reported control: Aníbal Coronel Monar; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

178,730

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": null,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 2,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 178730,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-2",
  "name": "BOLÍVAR",
  "office": "Prefect",
  "precinct_rows": [
    281,
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  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “BOLÍVAR — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-2. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.