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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS — Mayor

Original research briefing. Source qualifications and evidence gaps are retained; active scripts and styling have been removed for safe display.

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ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS — Mayor
Latin America register

Ecuador · GUAYAS

ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS — Mayor

The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Election expectation2026-11-29
Imported event records3
Usable vote comparison cycles3 of 3
Seat comparison cycles3 of 3

Historical competition

Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.

Provisional imported-series CI: 0.0/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.

Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.

Polling: no vetted current evidence included for this office.

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3, Source 4

Ordinary election register

Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register. CNE province / canton / parish codes: 9 / 986.

The precinct distribution dated 11 August 2026 assigns 11,658 electors to this territory. CNE distribution. This administrative count is separate from historical votes and turnout. Territorial totals overlap across office types.

Electoral event evidence

Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.

2023-02-05 · ordinary

Coverage: Official votes and elected roster

Basis: Valid votes for candidates/lists

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
ALIANZA DEL FUTUROLUIS VARGAS MATAMOROS2,80331.54%1
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANONIXON PEÑAHERRERA1,79120.15%0
1-33JEFFRY VARGAS LEON1,52717.18%0
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANAJAVIER RUIZ CERDA1,23313.87%0
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENEROSEGUNDO HINOJOSA1,21613.68%0
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADESAMALIA AGUA1671.88%0
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIKDELIA MARTINEZ1051.18%0
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANOJOSELIN HOLGUIN450.51%0

Result source · Seat source

2019-03-24 · ordinary

Coverage: Official votes and elected roster

Basis: Valid votes for candidates/lists

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - ECUATORIANO UNIDO Y DEMOGRACIA SIIGNACIO CERCADO CHOEZ5,56368.22%1
6-MADERA DE GUERRERORITA YEANNETTE MUÑOZ MARTILLO1,88323.09%0
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANOJAVIER RUIZ CERDA2603.19%0
FUERZA.ECROBERTO VARGAS ZAMBRANO2072.54%0
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIALFULTON BAJAÑA MARTILLO1942.38%0
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTEFRENYI MERCADO470.58%0

Result source · Seat source

2014-02-23 · ordinary

Coverage: Official votes and elected roster

Basis: Valid votes for candidates/lists

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
6-MADERA DE GUERREROMUÑOZ MARTILLO RITA YEANNETTE1,38221.11%1
MOVIMIENTO SUMACERCADO CHOEZ IGNACIO CARMELO1,37120.94%0
PARTIDO AVANZACRUZ ALVARADO STALIN MANUEL1,30519.94%0
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAISBAJAÑA MARTILLO MARCOS FILEMON1,03515.81%0
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIOHINOJOSA CRUZ SEGUNDO TELESFORO79612.16%0
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIKVALENCIA ALARCON ANABEL ESTHER2523.85%0
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANOINDACOCHEA SERRANO ANDRES GABRIEL1762.69%0
MOVIMIENTO CREOAGUA SOLORZANO CARLOS ALBERTO1402.14%0
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"MORAN MARTINEZ JOSE OSWALDO671.02%0
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONALRONQUILLO AVILA CARLOS FRANCISCO220.34%0

Result source · Seat source

Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record EC-M-9-986.