Office briefing
ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-986
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-4d5caaefccdd05aa984734d0
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA DEL FUTURO31.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO20.2%
- 1-3317.2%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA13.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO13.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.9%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA DEL FUTURO · LUIS VARGAS MATAMOROS | 1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,803 | 31.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · NIXON PEÑAHERRERA | 32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,791 | 20.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 1-33 · JEFFRY VARGAS LEON | 1440ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,527 | 17.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · JAVIER RUIZ CERDA | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,233 | 13.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · SEGUNDO HINOJOSA | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,216 | 13.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · AMALIA AGUA | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 167 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DELIA MARTINEZ | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 105 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JOSELIN HOLGUIN | 39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 45 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - ECUATORIANO UNIDO Y DEMOGRACIA SI68.2%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO23.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO3.2%
- FUERZA.EC2.5%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL2.4%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - ECUATORIANO UNIDO Y DEMOGRACIA SI · IGNACIO CERCADO CHOEZ | 683ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,563 | 68.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · RITA YEANNETTE MUÑOZ MARTILLO | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,883 | 23.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JAVIER RUIZ CERDA | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 260 | 3.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · ROBERTO VARGAS ZAMBRANO | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 207 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · FULTON BAJAÑA MARTILLO | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 194 | 2.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · FRENYI MERCADO | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 47 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO21.1%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA20.9%
- PARTIDO AVANZA19.9%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS15.8%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO12.2%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK3.8%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO2.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO2.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"1.0%
- PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · MUÑOZ MARTILLO RITA YEANNETTE | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,382 | 21.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · CERCADO CHOEZ IGNACIO CARMELO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,371 | 20.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · CRUZ ALVARADO STALIN MANUEL | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,305 | 19.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · BAJAÑA MARTILLO MARCOS FILEMON | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,035 | 15.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · HINOJOSA CRUZ SEGUNDO TELESFORO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 796 | 12.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · VALENCIA ALARCON ANABEL ESTHER | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 252 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · INDACOCHEA SERRANO ANDRES GABRIEL | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 176 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · AGUA SOLORZANO CARLOS ALBERTO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 140 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · MORAN MARTINEZ JOSE OSWALDO | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 67 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL · RONQUILLO AVILA CARLOS FRANCISCO | 9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 22 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.387419826713177, oldest_gap=0.1680415520928804, previous_gap=45.13122393917095
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[20.153032519410374,0,1.1815010689771577,1.8791493192303363,0,0,76.78631709238213],null,[0,19.935838680109992,3.84967919340055,2.1387106630003054,20.944087992667278,15.811182401466544,37.32050106935533]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[20.153032519410374,0,1.1815010689771577,1.8791493192303363,0,0,76.78631709238213],null,[0,19.935838680109992,3.84967919340055,2.1387106630003054,20.944087992667278,15.811182401466544,37.32050106935533]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[20.153032519410374,0,1.1815010689771577,1.8791493192303363,0,0,76.78631709238213],null,[0,19.935838680109992,3.84967919340055,2.1387106630003054,20.944087992667278,15.811182401466544,37.32050106935533]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 11,658 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 986,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 11658,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-986",
"name": "ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1579,
1862,
1863
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-986. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.