Office briefing

GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-390

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-fc44df7bf6ce72b68be898a7
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA39.9%
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO30.4%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA14.1%
ALIANZA 1-1710.3%
MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER)1.3%
MINGA POR GUAYAQUIL1.1%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.8%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.6%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN0.5%
PARTIDO AVANZA0.5%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.4%

Results for event-665196964e96791b7505857f
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · AQUILES ALVAREZ	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	562,041	39.9%	1	Recorded
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · CYNTHIA VITERI	1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	428,422	30.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · PEDRO PABLO DUART	42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	198,688	14.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA 1-17 · JIMMY JAIRALA VALLAZZA	1361ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	145,831	10.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER) · JONATHAN PARRA	186ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	18,903	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MINGA POR GUAYAQUIL · ECUADOR MONTENEGRO MORAN	1099ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	14,992	1.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · ROCIO SERRANO	34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	11,118	0.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JOHN ANTONIO GARAYCOA	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	8,739	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN · IVAN TUTILLO ARCENTALES	246ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	7,749	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · ANTONIO ORBE	101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	7,175	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · JAIME ABEL PAEZ MUENTES	157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	6,066	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

6-MADERA DE GUERRERO52.6%
ALIANZA NUEVO GUAYAQUIL31.8%
CREO - MST3.0%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA2.7%
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE2.3%
FUERZA.EC1.9%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.8%
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.8%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.7%
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL0.6%
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO0.6%
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.5%
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS0.4%
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.4%
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA0.4%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.3%
UNION ECUATORIANA0.2%

Results for event-fd36d9359fe1f0deb062e568
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · CYNTHIA VITERI	534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	714,369	52.6%	1	Recorded
ALIANZA NUEVO GUAYAQUIL · JIMMY JAIRALA VALLAZZA	675ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	431,853	31.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CREO - MST · FRANCISCO JIMENEZ SANCHEZ	741ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	40,089	3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · SIMON BOLIVAR ROSERO	13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	36,738	2.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · GINO CORNEJO	158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	30,923	2.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
FUERZA.EC · BALERIO ESTACIO	146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	25,383	1.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · EDUARDO ARGUDO GONZALEZ	8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	11,236	0.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · JUAN MANUEL BERMUDEZ COBOS	235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	11,037	0.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · MARTHA ALEXANDRA MACIAS CEDEÑO	3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	9,348	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · CARLOS CASSANELLO	170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	8,714	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · JORGE VILLACRESES GUILLEN	219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	7,714	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · EDGAR SALAZAR	18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	6,801	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · JAIME HUGO LOMAS PINARGOTE	142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	5,955	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JOSE INCA VELIZ	152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	5,588	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · PATRICIO BUENDIA NOROÑA	37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	5,157	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · OCTAVIO SUAREZ	12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,995	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · JORGE COPPIANO MARIN	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,339	0.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

6-MADERA DE GUERRERO59.5%
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO39.1%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO1.0%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.4%

Results for event-b7aed789ae27d4509cf983fb
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · NEBOT SAADI JAIME JOSE	9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	841,901	59.5%	1	Recorded
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · BONILLA SALCEDO VIVIANA PATRICIA	9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	554,337	39.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · ESTACIO VALENCIA SINDULFO BALERIO	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	13,999	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ALVAREZ GAVILANEZ EDUARDO ROBERTO	5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	5,733	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

30.210–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=9.478380165195457, oldest_gap=20.308622357818315, previous_gap=20.800168453416518

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

3.38percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0.5089648753940488,0,0,0,0,99.49103512460596],[0,0,0.29413085620424684,0,0.3796828098736673,2.704825881159354,96.6213604527627],[0,0,0.4048814593529524,0,0,0,99.59511854064705]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

3.08percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0.5089648753940488,0,0,0,0,99.49103512460596],[0,0,0.29413085620424684,0,0.3796828098736673,2.704825881159354,96.6213604527627],[0,0,0.4048814593529524,0,0,0,99.59511854064705]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

3.23percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0.5089648753940488,0,0,0,0,99.49103512460596],[0,0,0.29413085620424684,0,0.3796828098736673,2.704825881159354,96.6213604527627],[0,0,0.4048814593529524,0,0,0,99.59511854064705]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

2,019,614

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

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  "cne_canton": 390,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 9,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 2019614,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-390",
  "name": "GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS",
  "office": "Mayor",
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}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-390. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.