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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-8-561

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-a8c8e32c82b227ee0df820d5
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA33.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO26.1%
  • POR UN RIOVERDE DIFERENTE LISTAS 1,12,2320.1%
  • ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO9.7%
  • RIOVERDE CAMINEMOS JUNTOS8.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.2%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA0.4%
Results for event-3bdea07dec945a5a3072f059
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA · JOFFRE QUINTERO1270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,32033.2%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · ELVIS MENDOZA ANGULO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,18426.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
POR UN RIOVERDE DIFERENTE LISTAS 1,12,23 · ANA CAICEDO RODRIGUEZ1296ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,22820.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO · GONZALO ANGULO1178ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,5549.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
RIOVERDE CAMINEMOS JUNTOS · ESTRELLA OLMEDO BUENO1241ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,3308.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · PATRICIA FERNANDA MORA34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231891.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DAYANA BAUTISTA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231851.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · GREY LEMOS101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023570.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO31.2%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR28.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ14.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES7.5%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA1.8%
  • FUERZA.EC1.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.2%
Results for event-ca6fb72d06c2909dbde73570
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · JOFFRE QUINTERO BOLAÑOS1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,31231.2%1Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · NELSON VALENCIA OLMEDO143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,93428.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · ARMANDO PEÑA GRANDA198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,02414.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · GONZALO ANGULO GIRON13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,87813.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · CARLOS SATIZABAL22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,0377.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · MALENA CEMIRAMIS BEDON PATA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192501.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · ISMENIA VERA MONTAÑO146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192171.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · NELSON ZAMBRANO ARAUJO170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191601.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO32.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS30.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA25.5%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO7.2%
  • ALIANZA "UNIDOS POR RIO VERDE"3.8%
Results for event-5cb09c64dae354318e2c527d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · GUISAMANO PANTOJA DUBAL1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,93932.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · QUINTERO BOLAÑOS JOFFRE JEFFERSON3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,68230.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · VALENCIA OLMEDO NELSON ALIRIO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,06925.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · BORJA QUIÑONEZ LEONIDAS JACKSON2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20148677.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA "UNIDOS POR RIO VERDE" · VERA ESTUPIÑAN CARLOS JULIO8003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144623.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

73.590–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.079204835794851, oldest_gap=2.138281054996252, previous_gap=2.7367506516072986

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

26.25percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[26.073409360004984,0.35520658066928396,1.1528634635757462,0,0,0,72.41852059575],[31.21922965537214,0,0,7.507964089197799,0,13.596872284969592,47.67593397046047],[0,25.534570263749064,0,0,0,30.634828188701224,43.83060154754971]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

42.57percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[26.073409360004984,0.35520658066928396,1.1528634635757462,0,0,0,72.41852059575],[31.21922965537214,0,0,7.507964089197799,0,13.596872284969592,47.67593397046047],[0,25.534570263749064,0,0,0,30.634828188701224,43.83060154754971]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

34.41percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[26.073409360004984,0.35520658066928396,1.1528634635757462,0,0,0,72.41852059575],[31.21922965537214,0,0,7.507964089197799,0,13.596872284969592,47.67593397046047],[0,25.534570263749064,0,0,0,30.634828188701224,43.83060154754971]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1126,393
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 561,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 8,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 26393,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-8-561",
  "name": "RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1117,
    1118,
    1119,
    1120,
    1121,
    1122,
    1123,
    1124,
    1175,
    1179,
    1180,
    1181,
    1194,
    1239,
    1240,
    1319,
    1324,
    1325
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-8-561. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.