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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

MIRA / CARCHI — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · MIRA / CARCHI / CARCHI · municipal · MayorEC-M-4-20

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
MIRA / CARCHI / CARCHI
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-368c645b3ee315e711807c8c
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTA 2039.5%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA26.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES19.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA6.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO2.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION Y UNIDAD MIREÑA2.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO0.4%
Results for event-1f3d32eae073866c443575ef
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTA 20 · FAUSTO RUIZ QUINTEROS1124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,75739.5%1Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA · JOHNNY GARRIDO1110ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,47226%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · PAOLA ORTEGA99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,85319.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · PLUTARCO VIVEROS207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236486.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · CESAR SALAZAR124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232622.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DIEGO JIMENEZ BORJA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232422.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION Y UNIDAD MIREÑA · WALTER VILLEGAS49ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232372.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · ELIANA CASTILLO CHAMORRO226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023400.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA37.8%
  • ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 626.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA20.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION Y UNIDAD MIREÑA11.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ1.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.3%
Results for event-bd1753a328361dde38c7483d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JOHNNY GARRIDO PULE152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,41037.8%1Recorded
ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 6 · FAUSTO RUIZ567ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,41126.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · ANGEL CHALA OGONAGA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,88120.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION Y UNIDAD MIREÑA · WALTER VILLEGAS GUARDADO63ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,06311.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · EDGAR PALACIOS198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191321.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · OSCAR EFREN MUÑOZ22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191181.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 841.6%
  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI40.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN Y UNIDAD MIREÑA18.5%
Results for event-964cf8b4cb3e45112e3da229
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 8 · VILLEGAS GUARDADO WALTER DE JESUS4012ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,29941.6%1Recorded
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI · RUIZ QUINTEROS FAUSTO ISIDRO4013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,17240%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN Y UNIDAD MIREÑA · PONCE TAPIA LUIS EFRAIN4005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,46718.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

42.050–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.510671853643153, oldest_gap=1.5998992189468382, previous_gap=11.081530782029951

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

20.87percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,2.544422247923457,19.482704237199034,0,0,77.9728735148775],[0,0,0,1.3089295618413754,0,20.86522462562396,77.82584581253467],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,2.544422247923457,19.482704237199034,0,0,77.9728735148775],[0,0,0,1.3089295618413754,0,20.86522462562396,77.82584581253467],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,2.544422247923457,19.482704237199034,0,0,77.9728735148775],[0,0,0,1.3089295618413754,0,20.86522462562396,77.82584581253467],null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1112,274
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 20,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 4,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 12274,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-4-20",
  "name": "MIRA / CARCHI",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    504,
    505,
    509,
    510,
    516,
    518,
    520,
    558,
    559,
    560,
    561
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “MIRA / CARCHI — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-4-20. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.