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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

LA LIBERTAD / SANTA ELENA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · LA LIBERTAD / SANTA ELENA / SANTA ELENA · municipal · MayorEC-M-24-965

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
LA LIBERTAD / SANTA ELENA / SANTA ELENA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-e2f3d8cbc2f865abb8a72859
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA ÚNETE33.3%
  • SOMOS ENCUENTRO POSITIVO 65-69-2123.2%
  • REVOLUCION EN MARCHA18.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA6.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ESPERANZA POR UN CANTON PROSPERO MECP4.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE LIBERTAD4.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID3.2%
  • ALIANZA EL PODER LO TIENE EL PUEBLO2.5%
  • ALIANZA ID-FLC1.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO0.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.7%
Results for event-3457dbf929f8928467b96367
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA ÚNETE · FRANCISCO TAMARIZ1289ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202322,12933.3%1Recorded
SOMOS ENCUENTRO POSITIVO 65-69-21 · VICTOR VALDIVIESO CORDOVA1146ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202315,45223.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
REVOLUCION EN MARCHA · MARCO CHANGO1298ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202312,07218.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · KAREN MEDINA CASTILLO42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,3476.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ESPERANZA POR UN CANTON PROSPERO MECP · ELVIRA CANALES PROAÑO2ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,8144.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE LIBERTAD · ANTONIO ELIAS ESPINOZA INFANTE95ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,7454.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · ISAAC BUENAVENTURA MORENO222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,1143.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA EL PODER LO TIENE EL PUEBLO · JOYCE PARRALES CAMPOVERDE1187ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,6702.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA ID-FLC · GABRIELA BONINI1207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237711.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JOSE RAFAEL CASTAÑEDA MALES39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236741%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · BENJAMIN AMILCAR ARCOS208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236601%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · KENIA GUALE GUALE32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235840.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · EVA MIRANDA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234400.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA 62 - 2024.6%
  • ALIANZA23.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMPLIO RENOVADOR DE CIUDADANOS HUMANISTAS EN ACCION MARCHA21.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES10.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE LIBERTAD6.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICA RENACER PENINSULAR4.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO PROVINCIAL ÚNETE1.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA1.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA1.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.0%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA1.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.5%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.5%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA0.5%
  • FUERZA.EC0.5%
Results for event-b8b53ec99c301c1b944a0704
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA 62 - 20 · VICTOR VALDIVIESO CORDOVA668ecuador/Sed7b513864/201915,28724.6%1Recorded
ALIANZA · PATRICIO CISNEROS709ecuador/Sed7b513864/201914,32923%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMPLIO RENOVADOR DE CIUDADANOS HUMANISTAS EN ACCION MARCHA · MARCO CHANGO184ecuador/Sed7b513864/201913,55221.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · IPERTI ESPAÑA22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196,58710.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE LIBERTAD · ANTONIO ELIAS ESPINOZA INFANTE68ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,2626.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICA RENACER PENINSULAR · NARCISO MARCILLO140ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,4814%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PROVINCIAL ÚNETE · FRANCISCO JARAMILLO201ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,0421.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · GILBERTO DE LA ROSA CRUZ13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199981.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · ROLANDO GONZABAY FRANCO37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198491.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · WILLIAM IÑIGUEZ170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196021%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · BETSY AJOY SEGARRA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195951%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JUAN FRANCO BAQUE8ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193840.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · PAUL RODRIGUEZ18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193390.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · GERMAN JAVIER GONZALEZ158ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193190.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · ALCIDES BORBOR TABOADA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193020.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · NANCY CHALEN146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192860.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • CREO EN MIL LISTA 21 - 10343.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAÍS LISTA NO. 35 Y MOVIMIENTO PENINSULAR CREYENDO EN NUESTRA GENTE LISTA NO. 6127.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO FRENTE DE LUCHA CIUDADANA19.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA5.1%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA4.4%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO0.9%
Results for event-d915aa50a5335b908f501a0f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CREO EN MIL LISTA 21 - 103 · ESPINOZA INFANTE ANTONIO ELIAS24010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201424,62543.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAÍS LISTA NO. 35 Y MOVIMIENTO PENINSULAR CREYENDO EN NUESTRA GENTE LISTA NO. 61 · CHANGO JACHO MARCO ANTONIO24011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201415,54027.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO FRENTE DE LUCHA CIUDADANA · YAGUAL BORBOR DALTON FABRISIO24003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201410,84519.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · TAMAYO TRIVIÑO JORGE FABRICIO13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,9205.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · SOTOMAYOR ROSALES EDMUNDO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,4864.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · CEVALLOS MORALES GONZALO SEGUNDO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144890.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

59.570–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.04483090624624, oldest_gap=15.96520516650558, previous_gap=1.5398463368373676

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

13.56percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0.8785654110001203,0,0.6619328439042003,0,0,0,98.45950174509566],[0,0,0,10.587649082200148,1.3646446137525317,1.6041405471437298,86.44356575690357],[0,4.368684649855021,0,0,5.131359283015552,0,90.49995606712942]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

12.19percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0.8785654110001203,0,0.6619328439042003,0,0,0,98.45950174509566],[0,0,0,10.587649082200148,1.3646446137525317,1.6041405471437298,86.44356575690357],[0,4.368684649855021,0,0,5.131359283015552,0,90.49995606712942]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

12.87percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0.8785654110001203,0,0.6619328439042003,0,0,0,98.45950174509566],[0,0,0,10.587649082200148,1.3646446137525317,1.6041405471437298,86.44356575690357],[0,4.368684649855021,0,0,5.131359283015552,0,90.49995606712942]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1188,007
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 965,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 24,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 88007,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-24-965",
  "name": "LA LIBERTAD / SANTA ELENA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    4336,
    4337,
    4367,
    4368,
    4369,
    4370,
    4371,
    4372,
    4374,
    4375,
    4386,
    4387
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “LA LIBERTAD / SANTA ELENA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-24-965. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.