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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

JARAMIJÓ / MANABÍ — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · JARAMIJÓ / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-446

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
JARAMIJÓ / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-8f80eded4ce684a4b2465fdb
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA35.8%
  • 1-3325.9%
  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD JARAMIJENSE24.5%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA10.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID1.1%
  • LIDEREZA JUVENIL SIGLO XXI0.7%
  • MANABITAMENTE0.3%
Results for event-0e78311e5885352ba3c3eb77
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · SIMETRIO CALDERON ALAVA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,22135.8%1Recorded
1-33 · SAMUEL CELI ALVAREZ1387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,77225.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD JARAMIJENSE · HECTOR EGAS1046ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,57024.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · BAWER BAILON PICO117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,47910.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · SANDRO MERO7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232401.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · MARIELA PLAZA222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231571.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
LIDEREZA JUVENIL SIGLO XXI · JOYCE KLINGER1076ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231070.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MANABITAMENTE · KATHERINE CAMPUZANO1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023390.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO EXCEPCION 17-2031.5%
  • ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 7228.5%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA16.9%
  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6513.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION5.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION1.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO0.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.9%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR0.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.3%
Results for event-a940e434bb3293ad726438eb
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO EXCEPCION 17-20 · SIMETRIO CALDERON ALAVA811ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,97731.5%1Recorded
ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72 · HECTOR EGAS673ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,58728.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · JOHAN BAILON PICO51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,12916.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 · MARIO ANCHUNDIA MERO711ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,72013.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION · XAVIER ENRIQUE CHINGA CEVALLOS264ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196865.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · IPATIA CEVALLOS ROSADO18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191931.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · WINSTON ZAMORA LARA219ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191140.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · WILSON QUIROZ PRADO3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191090.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · ARCADIO CEDEÑO MACIAS143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019570.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · LENIN RODRIGO LOPEZ MEDINA198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019350.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO24.9%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA21.3%
  • PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6519.4%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO16.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA11.2%
  • ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA3.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD2.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO0.5%
Results for event-b6ca28f501394eb2f638cf41
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · BAILON PICO BAWER AXDUD10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,53224.9%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · CALDERON ALAVA SIMETRIO ARMENGOL6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,17021.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-65 · MONCAYO GARCIA PATRICIA ESTILITA13011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,97119.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · ARCENTALES MERO FLOWER VALDIMIR2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,62216%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · LOPEZ ALONZO DORIS NAIDA13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,14411.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA · CARRILLO SANTANA PIO ANTONIO13010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143843.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD · ANCHUNDIA DELGADO FABIAN LEONARDO13002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142952.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · LOPEZ MEDINA LENIN RODRIGO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014510.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

63.780–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=9.934864586904354, oldest_gap=3.559838725538402, previous_gap=3.093519473308479

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,1.64552622557422,0,0,0,98.35447377442578],null,[0,21.33936473596224,0,0.501524240338283,11.249877077392075,0,66.90923394630741]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,1.64552622557422,0,0,0,98.35447377442578],null,[0,21.33936473596224,0,0.501524240338283,11.249877077392075,0,66.90923394630741]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,1.64552622557422,0,0,0,98.35447377442578],null,[0,21.33936473596224,0,0.501524240338283,11.249877077392075,0,66.90923394630741]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1119,177
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 446,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 13,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 19177,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-446",
  "name": "JARAMIJÓ / MANABÍ",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2564,
    2565,
    2566
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “JARAMIJÓ / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-446. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.