Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Source publication

CALVAS / LOJA — Mayor

Original research briefing. Source qualifications and evidence gaps are retained; active scripts and styling have been removed for safe display.

Back to structured office record

CALVAS / LOJA — Mayor
Latin America register

Ecuador · LOJA

CALVAS / LOJA — Mayor

The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Election expectation2026-11-29
Imported event records3
Usable vote comparison cycles3 of 3
Seat comparison cycles3 of 3

Historical competition

Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.

Provisional imported-series CI: 86.7/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.

Grouped party-share volatility: latest interval — points; earlier interval 21.0 points; two-interval mean — points.

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.

Polling: no vetted current evidence included for this office.

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3, Source 4

Ordinary election register

Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register. CNE province / canton / parish codes: 11 / 320.

The precinct distribution dated 11 August 2026 assigns 23,021 electors to this territory. CNE distribution. This administrative count is separate from historical votes and turnout. Territorial totals overlap across office types.

Electoral event evidence

Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.

2023-02-05 · ordinary

Coverage: Official votes and elected roster

Basis: Valid votes for candidates/lists

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
ALIANZA POR CALVASJORGE MONTERO RODRIGUEZ4,38327.00%1
SOMOS EL CAMBIOJOSE SARANGO JIMA3,74123.05%0
CALVAS RENACEFERNANDO CUEVA CARRION3,32820.50%0
JUNTOS POR LOJAEDWIN PATRICIO LIMA CELI2,88217.76%0
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANAJOSE FABIAN CASTILLO GONZALEZ1,69410.44%0
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANOMARIA BRAVO QUEZADA2041.26%0

Result source · Seat source

2019-03-24 · ordinary

Coverage: Official votes and elected roster

Basis: Valid votes for candidates/lists

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANAALEX PADILLA2,99118.48%1
CENTRO DEMOCRATICOPATRICIO LIMA CELI2,90017.92%0
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMAJORGE MONTERO RODRIGUEZ2,83117.49%0
ALIANZA ÚNETE AL CAMBIOJOSE ADALBERTO SARANGO JIMA2,64916.36%0
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACIONALFREDO PAZ TINITANA1,68210.39%0
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA POPULAR LATINOAMERICANAM, APLAEDILMA JIMENEZ CABRERA1,4889.19%0
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO LIBERTAD, INTEGRACIÓN Y DEMOCRACIACHARVEL ANTONIO SOTO TORRES6514.02%0
ALIANZA LOJA PROGRESARICHARD SOTO6293.89%0
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANOROBER MEJIA3662.26%0

Result source · Seat source

2014-02-23 · ordinary

Coverage: Official votes and elected roster

Basis: Valid votes for candidates/lists

Party or listCandidateVotes or marksVote shareSeats
ALIANZA CAMINO AL PROGRESOCUEVA BRAVO MARIO VICENTE5,39733.21%1
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAISGUARNIZO CONDOLO JOSE WILFRIDO5,21032.06%0
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA POPULAR LATINOAMERICANAJIMENEZ CABRERA EDILMA PIEDAD2,52615.55%0
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"MEJIA TORRES ROBER ALFONSO1,3068.04%0
PARTIDO AVANZALOAIZA CAMPOVERDE HOMER ARMANDO1,2047.41%0
MOVIMIENTO ACCION REGIONAL POR LA EQUIDADCEVALLOS PEÑA SERAPIO REYMUNDO6063.73%0

Result source · Seat source

Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record EC-M-11-320.