Office briefing

MILAGRO / GUAYAS — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · MILAGRO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · Municipal councilEC-C-9-420

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: MILAGRO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-94954daf1c15adeffa4a6150
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA36.2%
PSC-MILAGREÑOS RENACEN21.0%
UNIDOS POR MILAGRO17.0%
SI SE PUEDE MILAGRO14.1%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA3.7%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA2.9%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO2.9%
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR2.2%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.1%

Results for event-2769d74a5b882c2ab98405bb
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	36,135	36.2%	4	Recorded
PSC-MILAGREÑOS RENACEN	1134ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	20,941	21%	2	Recorded
UNIDOS POR MILAGRO	1070ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	16,934	17%	2	Recorded
SI SE PUEDE MILAGRO	1320ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	14,023	14.1%	1	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	3,648	3.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA	42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	2,925	2.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO	39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	2,872	2.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR	231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	2,171	2.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO	34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	79	0.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

6-MADERA DE GUERRERO - MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN26.3%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES24.9%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA14.3%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL12.7%
EL MILAGRO QUE QUEREMOS4.2%
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO2.5%
FUERZA.EC2.2%
ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE - MST1.9%
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.7%
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS1.6%
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION1.6%
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.5%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.1%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.0%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.0%
UNION ECUATORIANA0.8%
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META)0.7%

Results for event-182b235db607c969241dd88d
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO - MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN	541ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	78,969	26.3%	4	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES	22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	74,836	24.9%	2	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA	13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	42,987	14.3%	2	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	38,187	12.7%	1	Recorded
EL MILAGRO QUE QUEREMOS	648ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	12,512	4.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO	145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	7,520	2.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
FUERZA.EC	146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	6,720	2.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE - MST	634ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	5,709	1.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL	170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,986	1.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS	142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,925	1.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION	18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,795	1.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA	152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,635	1.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO	8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,447	1.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK	12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,093	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO	3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,073	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,403	0.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META)	50ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,003	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO39.8%
MOVIMIENTO CREO21.8%
MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN16.4%
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO6.5%
MOVIMIENTO SUMA5.5%
PARTIDO AVANZA3.2%
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL1.4%
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO1.3%
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1.3%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO1.2%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.9%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.7%

Results for event-f8625fe9d7bec8e6e7afe75f
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO	9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	120,639	39.8%	5	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	66,219	21.8%	2	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN	9007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	49,853	16.4%	2	Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO	9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	19,772	6.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA	13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	16,834	5.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA	6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	9,587	3.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL	9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	4,156	1.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO	2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	4,004	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO	1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	3,979	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	3,503	1.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"	4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	2,840	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK	5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	2,100	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

155,795

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 420,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 9,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 155795,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-C-9-420",
  "name": "MILAGRO / GUAYAS",
  "office": "Municipal council",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1357,
    1358,
    1359,
    1360,
    1361,
    1412,
    1475,
    1481,
    1542,
    1543,
    1544,
    1545,
    1546,
    1547,
    1548,
    1549,
    1550,
    1551,
    1552,
    1553,
    1554,
    1853,
    1854,
    1855,
    1856
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “MILAGRO / GUAYAS — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-C-9-420. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.