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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

BIBLIÁN / CAÑAR — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · BIBLIÁN / CAÑAR / CAÑAR · municipal · Municipal councilEC-C-3-245

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
BIBLIÁN / CAÑAR / CAÑAR
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-02c28f48155db09a6a342fcf
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK44.4%
  • CAÑAR EMPRENDE 5-1730.7%
  • CAÑAR RENACE CONTIGO24.9%
Results for event-ffbbb7b9890a677902355b9a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,48244.4%2Recorded
CAÑAR EMPRENDE 5-171306ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,09730.7%2Recorded
CAÑAR RENACE CONTIGO1190ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,51224.9%1Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ32.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO27.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES24.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK15.7%
Results for event-347cd321cebd5486b8038a97
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198,69232.6%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197,26127.2%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196,51924.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,18115.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK39.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS18.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO14.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA13.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA7.3%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO6.6%
Results for event-f3b058840d80c783dfc42a11
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201410,07839.4%3Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,71318.4%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,73014.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,47713.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,8657.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,6986.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1116,794
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 245,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 3,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 16794,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-C-3-245",
  "name": "BIBLIÁN / CAÑAR",
  "office": "Municipal council",
  "precinct_rows": [
    438,
    439,
    440,
    441,
    442,
    443,
    444,
    445,
    486,
    487,
    488,
    489
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “BIBLIÁN / CAÑAR — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-C-3-245. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.