Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

GUALACEO / AZUAY — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUALACEO / AZUAY / AZUAY · municipal · Municipal councilEC-C-1-265

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GUALACEO / AZUAY / AZUAY
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-47e5ed1c0439be1799ebfc9d
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • GUALACEO PRIMERO32.7%
  • ¡ATREVETE! JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO23.3%
  • AZUAY YA12.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA11.8%
  • UNIDOS VENCEREMOS10.2%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA9.2%
Results for event-ba4954efa9b3668e6c033324
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
GUALACEO PRIMERO1027ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,80832.7%2Recorded
¡ATREVETE! JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO1430ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,85723.3%2Recorded
AZUAY YA1115ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,67012.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,44611.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOS VENCEREMOS1491ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,11610.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,9099.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO Y DEMOCRACIA SI29.3%
  • ALIANZA GUALACEO ASI JUNTOS PODEMOS26.7%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA19.7%
  • ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO10.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP6.0%
Results for event-8e562b1f6500838e62dc5d9d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO Y DEMOCRACIA SI753ecuador/Sed7b513864/201914,95029.3%2Recorded
ALIANZA GUALACEO ASI JUNTOS PODEMOS585ecuador/Sed7b513864/201913,62326.7%2Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/201910,08219.7%1Recorded
ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO560ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,49910.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,8957.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,0626%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS38.2%
  • ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-8225.3%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA15.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12.4%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO9.1%
Results for event-5d47aa8ebf4c65b1f65a69a4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201418,80238.2%3Recorded
ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-821008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201412,47425.3%2Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20147,40915%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146,09812.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,4739.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1134,782
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 265,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 1,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 34782,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-C-1-265",
  "name": "GUALACEO / AZUAY",
  "office": "Municipal council",
  "precinct_rows": [
    185,
    186,
    187,
    188,
    189,
    190,
    191,
    192,
    193,
    194,
    195,
    196,
    197,
    198,
    199,
    200,
    201,
    202,
    203
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GUALACEO / AZUAY — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-C-1-265. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.