Colombia · Antioquia

El Bagre — Mayor

Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.

Historical competition

Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.

Provisional imported-series CI: 61.7/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.

Grouped party-share volatility: latest interval 94.4 points; earlier interval 75.9 points; two-interval mean 85.1 points.

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.

National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-03. Sample 2,191; reported margin of error ±2.00 percentage points. Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline. Poll report

National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-03. Sample 1,904; reported margin of error ±2.00 percentage points. The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately. Poll report

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3

Electoral event evidence

Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.

Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record CO-ALC-05250.