Office briefing
El Bagre — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Colombia · El Bagre / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05250
Read the complete original research briefing
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- El Bagre / Antioquia
- Next election
- 2027-10-31
- Linked upcoming event
- next-ba6944200a273a666ee2fc44
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE40.8%
- COMPROMETIDOS CON EL BAGRE36.5%
- FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO21.7%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO0.3%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA0.3%
- MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA0.2%
- PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Marco Fidel Trespalacio Bulloso | 20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 8,674 | 40.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| COMPROMETIDOS CON EL BAGRE · Anibal Navarro Hernandez | 20230958colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 7,772 | 36.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO · German Andres Hoyos Meza | 20150388colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 4,610 | 21.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Johe Alexi Borjas Miranda | 18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 73 | 0.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA · Carlos Mario Pino Gil | 19900002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 66 | 0.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Ellery Martinez Rojas | 19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 45 | 0.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Jorge Eliecer Isaza Peña | 20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 39 | 0.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
2019
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE27.3%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO18.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U18.3%
- MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS18.1%
- POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO11.9%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES4.5%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.6%
- PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO0.2%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Faber Enrique Trespalacio | 20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 5,181 | 27.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Johe Alexi Borjas Miranda | 18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 3,509 | 18.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Gumercindo Florez Mendoza | 20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 3,471 | 18.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · German Andres Hoyos Meza | 20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 3,440 | 18.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Luis Gabriel Montero Rodriguez | 20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 2,252 | 11.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Judit Maria Fernandez Ortega | 20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 863 | 4.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Jose Alexander Padilla Gil | 19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 114 | 0.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE · Roimir Eduardo Duran Maury | 20180004colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 107 | 0.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · John Fredy Mesa Rodriguez | 19910001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 34 | 0.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA · Oscar Miguel Corcho Romero | 20190033colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 33 | 0.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
2015
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA56.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U31.8%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI10.3%
- PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO1.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Angel Mesa Castro | 20090001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 10,993 | 56.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Gumercindo Florez Mendoza | 20050002colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 6,182 | 31.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · German Andres Hoyos Meza | 19910006colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 1,997 | 10.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Anibal Navarro Hernandez | 20030001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 274 | 1.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI61.720–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=4.238921001926784, oldest_gap=24.74030648976653, previous_gap=8.798147758366657
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility94.38percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0.3430612340805489,0,0,0,40.76319375910522,0,0,0,0,58.893745006814235],[0,18.46453378236161,18.264575878762365,0,27.262681540728266,0,0.5998737107977268,18.10145232582614,11.850136813302463,0.17890970322037467,5.277836245001052],[0,0,31.790599609174123,1.4090301347320786,0,0,10.269464157153141,0,0,0,56.530906098940655]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility75.86percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0.3430612340805489,0,0,0,40.76319375910522,0,0,0,0,58.893745006814235],[0,18.46453378236161,18.264575878762365,0,27.262681540728266,0,0.5998737107977268,18.10145232582614,11.850136813302463,0.17890970322037467,5.277836245001052],[0,0,31.790599609174123,1.4090301347320786,0,0,10.269464157153141,0,0,0,56.530906098940655]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility85.12percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0.3430612340805489,0,0,0,40.76319375910522,0,0,0,0,58.893745006814235],[0,18.46453378236161,18.264575878762365,0,27.262681540728266,0,0.5998737107977268,18.10145232582614,11.850136813302463,0.17890970322037467,5.277836245001052],[0,0,31.790599609174123,1.4090301347320786,0,0,10.269464157153141,0,0,0,56.530906098940655]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.
Sources
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2023 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2019 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2015 alcaldia · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “El Bagre — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05250. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.