Belize
ORANGE WALK — Mayor
Three city/town cycles include mayoral votes, councillor marks and elected flags. San Lazaro has a confirmed single-member village vacancy poll on 4 October 2026, with 2019/2022/2025 member-cohort context retained separately from a comparable single-seat series. The 2022 cohort was uncontested. Council marks are not voter shares. Minor affiliations, other intervening events, current control and the 2027 municipal call remain to be verified. The ordinary village cycle is expected in May–July 2028, outside the window, from the statutory three-year term; this is not a formal call.
Historical competition
Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.
Provisional imported-series CI: 0.0/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.
Grouped party-share volatility: latest interval 5.2 points; earlier interval 12.7 points; two-interval mean 9.0 points.
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). PUP, UDP and Other (minor parties and unresolved/independent affiliations). An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Current government and control: Unverified. Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.
Polling: no vetted current evidence included for this office.
Council marks cannot be used as ordinary vote shares. Mayor and council have separate histories.
Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3
Electoral event evidence
Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.
2024-03-06 · ordinary
Coverage: Official candidate votes and elected flags; minor-party affiliation reconciliation pending where noted
Basis: One mayoral candidate mark per voter
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUP | SHEPPARD Ladrick "Mad Bull" | 4,752 | 74.46% | 1 |
| UDP | CARBALLO Enrique "Wico" | 1,630 | 25.54% | 0 |
2021-03-03 · ordinary
Coverage: Official candidate votes and elected flags; minor-party affiliation reconciliation pending where noted
Basis: One mayoral candidate mark per voter
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUP | SHEPPARD Ladrick "Mad Bull" | 4,521 | 78.76% | 1 |
| UDP | CASTILLO Orlando "Chicle" | 1,166 | 20.31% | 0 |
| Affiliation unresolved — SANCHEZ Antonia | SANCHEZ Antonia | 53 | 0.92% | 0 |
2018-03-07 · ordinary
Coverage: Official candidate votes and elected flags; minor-party affiliation reconciliation pending where noted
Basis: One mayoral candidate mark per voter
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUP | BERNARD Kevin | 5,260 | 66.98% | 1 |
| UDP | DE LA FUENTE Phillip | 2,593 | 33.02% | 0 |
Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record BZ-ORANGEWALK-M.