Brazil · RR
Roraima — Governor
54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.
Historical competition
Competitiveness index for a verified actual-event sequence withheld. Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete.
Provisional imported-series CI: 65.0/100. This uses the three displayed comparison cycles and retains the open event/boundary audit. It does not confirm the latest three actual completed elections.
Current government and control: TRE-RR signed statement confirms Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) as acting governor on 21 June 2026; the 27 August poll report still describes him as acting governor. Later definitive proclamation not verified.. Current officeholder source. Primary dated acting-officeholder confirmation; subsequent secondary confirmation on 27 August 2026 Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.
National polling context: National presidential poll; context for subnational races — Datafolha; fieldwork 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-02. Sample 2,002; reported margin of error ±2.00 percentage points. Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose. Poll report
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-27. Sample 5,021; reported margin of error ±1.00 percentage points. Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Poll report
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-08-25 to 2026-08-30. Sample 5,014; reported margin of error ±1.00 percentage points. Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points. Poll report
Local polling evidence: Roraima governor — Quaest; fieldwork 2026-08-23 to 2026-08-26. Sample 804; reported margin of error ±3.00 percentage points. Arthur Henrique leads acting governor Soldado Sampaio by 33 points in this snapshot. Rosi Aires 1%; Farah Mesquita and Clebio Genuino 0%; undecided 9%; blank/null/abstention 3%. Published rounded categories sum to 100%. The June supplementary result remains judicially unresolved in recovered evidence. Poll report
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. 2022 election annulled. June 2026 replacement remains unresolved in recovered evidence; The official 2010 first round and runoff are now recovered; selected completed ordinary cycles are 2018, 2014 and 2010. Final judicial disposition of the 2026 replacement is still missing. The 2010 radio case was dismissed by the TSE on 29 November 2011; that report explicitly mentions other pending cases and does not certify an exhaustive litigation review.
Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3, Source 4, Source 5
Electoral event evidence
Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.
2026-06-21 · Supplemental public ballot; outcome unresolved
Coverage: Secondary full count supplemented by TSE primary confirmation of the two leading totals and TRE-RR signed non-proclamation statement
Basis: Published nominal percentages include 160,004 votes annulled sub judice. Those votes are stored separately from legally valid votes; their candidate is not declared the winner.
Unresolved: definitive candidate-registration judgment and proclamation not verified. This evidence is not counted as a completed, score-eligible election.
Votes under judicial review, kept separate: [{"party": "PL", "candidate": "Arthur Henrique", "votes": 160004, "share_of_all_candidate_marks": 60.8729726953498}]. These are not silently discarded or treated as finally valid votes.
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicanos | Soldado Sampaio | 93,897 | 91.30% | — |
| PT | Nelita Frank | 8,948 | 8.70% | — |
2022-10-02 · Decisive governor round 1
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Valid nominal votes
Outcome unresolved. This evidence is not counted as a completed, score-eligible election.
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | ANTONIO DENARIUM | 163,167 | 56.47% | — |
| MDB | TERESA SURITA | 118,856 | 41.14% | — |
| PSOL | FÁBIO ALMEIDA | 3,843 | 1.33% | — |
| PDT | JURACI ESCURINHO | 1,878 | 0.65% | — |
| PV | RUDSON LEITE | 1,189 | 0.41% | — |
2018-10-28 · Decisive governor round 2
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Valid nominal votes
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSL | ANTONIO DENARIUM | 136,612 | 53.34% | — |
| PSDB | ANCHIETA | 119,489 | 46.66% | — |
2014-10-26 · Decisive governor round 2
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Reported nominal + list counts (legacy 2014 fields)
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | SUELY CAMPOS | 127,161 | 54.85% | — |
| PSB | CHICO RODRIGUES | 104,656 | 45.15% | — |
2010-10-31 · Decisive governor round 2
Coverage: Complete state section aggregation; 893 sections. First-round totals reconcile with separate party file.
Basis: Valid candidate votes. Blank and null votes excluded. Unchanged candidate numbers join first-round party labels to runoff.
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSDB | JOSE DE ANCHIETA JUNIOR | 107,466 | 50.41% | — |
| PP | NEUDO RIBEIRO CAMPOS | 105,707 | 49.59% | — |
2010-10-03 · Governor first round; runoff in same election cycle
Coverage: Complete state section aggregation; 893 sections. First-round totals reconcile with separate party file.
Basis: Valid candidate votes. Blank and null votes excluded. Unchanged candidate numbers join first-round party labels to runoff.
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | NEUDO RIBEIRO CAMPOS | 104,804 | 47.62% | — |
| PSDB | JOSE DE ANCHIETA JUNIOR | 99,124 | 45.03% | — |
| PHS | PETRONIO PEREIRA DE ARAUJO | 14,063 | 6.39% | — |
| PSOL | ROBERT DAGON DA SILVA | 2,116 | 0.96% | — |
Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record BR-RR-G.