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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

Amapá — State legislative assembly

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Brazil · Amapá / AP · regional · State legislative assemblyBR-AP-A

Read the complete original research briefing

First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Amapá / AP
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-132f94175269e6bcbde8c562
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PDT12.0%
  • UNIÃO11.2%
  • MDB7.5%
  • PL7.2%
  • PSD6.5%
  • SOLIDARIEDADE6.5%
  • PODE6.0%
  • PP6.0%
  • REDE4.9%
  • REPUBLICANOS3.5%
  • PV3.5%
  • PROS3.4%
  • PTB3.4%
  • PSDB2.7%
  • PSC2.5%
  • PC do B2.4%
  • CIDADANIA2.4%
  • PT2.1%
  • PRTB1.8%
  • AVANTE1.7%
  • PSOL1.5%
  • PSB1.3%
  • AGIR0.0%
Results for event-0293b2524439a13e02dab55c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PDTbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202250,42412%3Recorded
UNIÃObrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202247,21711.2%3Recorded
MDBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202231,7447.5%2Recorded
PLbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202230,4287.2%2Recorded
PSDbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202227,4546.5%2Recorded
SOLIDARIEDADEbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202227,2586.5%2Recorded
PODEbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202225,4016%1Recorded
PPbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202225,3756%1Recorded
REDEbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202220,7024.9%2Recorded
REPUBLICANOSbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202214,8993.5%1Recorded
PVbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202214,6433.5%1Recorded
PROSbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202214,3773.4%1Recorded
PTBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202214,1743.4%1Recorded
PSDBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202211,3162.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSCbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202210,4632.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PC do Bbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202210,1442.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CIDADANIAbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/202210,0932.4%1Recorded
PTbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20228,7712.1%1Recorded
PRTBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20227,7291.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AVANTEbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20227,0961.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSOLbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20226,1221.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSBbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/20225,3051.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AGIRbrazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022170%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2018-10-07

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PR11.4%
  • PTC6.6%
  • DEM6.3%
  • REDE6.2%
  • PDT6.2%
  • PP5.9%
  • PPS5.3%
  • PSC5.1%
  • PSD4.7%
  • PSB4.7%
  • PSDB4.2%
  • PRP3.9%
  • PTB3.7%
  • PV2.7%
  • PMB2.5%
  • PSOL2.5%
  • MDB2.5%
  • DC2.2%
  • PC do B2.1%
  • PROS2.0%
  • PPL1.9%
  • SOLIDARIEDADE1.9%
  • PRB1.7%
  • PODE1.5%
  • PHS1.5%
  • PSL0.5%
  • PSTU0.2%
  • AVANTE0.1%
  • PMN0.1%
Results for event-0dfd108409e0e5855ae7ca6c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PRbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201845,96611.4%4Recorded
PTCbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201826,4766.6%2Recorded
DEMbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201825,3246.3%2Recorded
REDEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201824,9736.2%1Recorded
PDTbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201824,8386.2%1Recorded
PPbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201823,8425.9%1Recorded
PPSbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201821,3755.3%1Recorded
PSCbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201820,4735.1%1Recorded
PSDbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201818,8074.7%1Recorded
PSBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201818,8014.7%1Recorded
PSDBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201816,9184.2%1Recorded
PRPbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201815,6733.9%1Recorded
PTBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201815,0303.7%1Recorded
PVbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201811,0142.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PMBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201810,1582.5%1Recorded
PSOLbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/201810,1562.5%1Recorded
MDBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20189,9232.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
DCbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20188,8542.2%1Recorded
PC do Bbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20188,6112.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PROSbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20188,0412%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPLbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20187,7331.9%1Recorded
SOLIDARIEDADEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20187,6721.9%1Recorded
PRBbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20186,7391.7%1Recorded
PODEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20186,2381.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHSbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20186,0011.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSLbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20181,9090.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSTUbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20188330.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AVANTEbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20185520.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PMNbrazil/S0d7ac4a666/20184410.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-10-05

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PRB11.5%
  • PSB9.2%
  • PSC7.2%
  • PDT7.2%
  • PMDB5.3%
  • PROS5.0%
  • PSDB4.9%
  • PSOL4.8%
  • DEM4.1%
  • PTB4.0%
  • PR3.9%
  • PT3.7%
  • PSDC3.4%
  • PT do B3.1%
  • PP3.0%
  • PHS3.0%
  • PSD2.9%
  • PV2.0%
  • PRTB1.9%
  • PRP1.9%
  • PPS1.7%
  • PTN1.5%
  • PPL1.5%
  • SD1.4%
  • PC do B1.2%
  • PEN0.3%
  • PSTU0.3%
  • PTC0.1%
  • PMN0.1%
Results for event-323e417e9baba7ec672a95b4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PRBbrazil/S2c70216745/201445,11611.5%4Recorded
PSBbrazil/S2c70216745/201436,0899.2%2Recorded
PSCbrazil/S2c70216745/201428,4787.2%2Recorded
PDTbrazil/S2c70216745/201428,4677.2%2Recorded
PMDBbrazil/S2c70216745/201420,9925.3%2Recorded
PROSbrazil/S2c70216745/201419,7375%2Recorded
PSDBbrazil/S2c70216745/201419,0994.9%2Recorded
PSOLbrazil/S2c70216745/201418,8934.8%2Recorded
DEMbrazil/S2c70216745/201416,2054.1%1Recorded
PTBbrazil/S2c70216745/201415,5404%2Recorded
PRbrazil/S2c70216745/201415,2073.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PTbrazil/S2c70216745/201414,4723.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSDCbrazil/S2c70216745/201413,1903.4%1Recorded
PT do Bbrazil/S2c70216745/201412,0493.1%1Recorded
PPbrazil/S2c70216745/201411,8983%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHSbrazil/S2c70216745/201411,6443%1Recorded
PSDbrazil/S2c70216745/201411,5532.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PVbrazil/S2c70216745/20147,7142%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRTBbrazil/S2c70216745/20147,4511.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRPbrazil/S2c70216745/20147,4091.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPSbrazil/S2c70216745/20146,6151.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PTNbrazil/S2c70216745/20145,9411.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPLbrazil/S2c70216745/20145,8571.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SDbrazil/S2c70216745/20145,4151.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PC do Bbrazil/S2c70216745/20144,7591.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PENbrazil/S2c70216745/20141,2520.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSTUbrazil/S2c70216745/20141,2080.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PTCbrazil/S2c70216745/20145480.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PMNbrazil/S2c70216745/20143700.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

89.320–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.761482790061546, oldest_gap=2.2959650836283725, previous_gap=4.831780172595452

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

14.95percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[2.0826210014436595,2.6869158878504673,7.537421168604209,6.025140566826229,1.259640224906922,11.972874401641212,6.518786566370337,1.4536319428614848,7.224944913000532,53.23802332649495],[0,4.194153769110819,2.4600181966477512,5.910687679580337,4.660969678038332,6.1576067689546345,4.662457142432153,2.5177813972744696,11.39546472106324,58.04086064689826],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[2.0826210014436595,2.6869158878504673,7.537421168604209,6.025140566826229,1.259640224906922,11.972874401641212,6.518786566370337,1.4536319428614848,7.224944913000532,53.23802332649495],[0,4.194153769110819,2.4600181966477512,5.910687679580337,4.660969678038332,6.1576067689546345,4.662457142432153,2.5177813972744696,11.39546472106324,58.04086064689826],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[2.0826210014436595,2.6869158878504673,7.537421168604209,6.025140566826229,1.259640224906922,11.972874401641212,6.518786566370337,1.4536319428614848,7.224944913000532,53.23802332649495],[0,4.194153769110819,2.4600181966477512,5.910687679580337,4.660969678038332,6.1576067689546345,4.662457142432153,2.5177813972744696,11.39546472106324,58.04086064689826],null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. Roraima legal certification, Rio and other specific replacement/current-control cases remain open. Eight municipal replacement tickets are tracked; ordinary municipal renewals are outside the window. Public-vote baselines for Alagoas and Amazonas are supplied separately from their indirect selections. Roraima’s primary 2010 cycle is recovered; the June 2026 proclamation is still unresolved. Rio’s signed 2026 legislative retotalization verifies the imported 2022 votes and seats, with 70 named elected deputies added; later membership and governing-coalition control still need dated verification.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Amapá — State legislative assembly.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/BR-AP-A. Sources: brazil--url-580aebec6bb5c27e76b98bb4, brazil--url-ef95aa16df1e62f699a27949, brazil--url-653ade48bf64a7388c4b910b, brazil--S5cd0a4c40e, brazil--S0d7ac4a666, brazil--S2c70216745.