Argentina · Buenos Aires
Buenos Aires — Governor
All 24 provincial jurisdictions are screened; 3,440 current provincial/local or shared-ballot units are registered. Recovered archives now cover all provinces. All 804 previously inaccessible Córdoba tribunal tables are restored, adding local histories and replacing provincial secondary vote transcriptions. Several local tiers have inventories or winner-only evidence without three full returns. Corrientes and Santiago del Estero executive cycles outside the window are excluded. Partial chamber renewals, Santa Fe commune reform, conventions and replacements remain distinct. Older local votes, selected certificates and 2027 office calls remain incomplete. Ten 2023 Catamarca local returns are recovered from DINE provisional table data through exact single-municipality department bridges; they remain excluded from complete-cycle metrics pending final-tally reconciliation.
Historical competition
Competitiveness index 21.7 out of 100. Weighted top-two gap 15.7 percentage points. Margin dispersion 6.0 points.
Weights are 60%, 30%, 10%. This is a historical screen, not an incumbent-defeat forecast. Margin dispersion is not Pedersen party volatility.
Current government and control: Axel Kicillof (Partido Justicialista); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Directory coalition: Fuerza Patria. Current officeholder source. Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary verification pending Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-03. Sample 1,120; reported margin of error ±3.00 percentage points. Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Poll report
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-03. Sample 2,193; reported margin of error ±2.00 percentage points. Approval rose 1.0 percentage point while disapproval fell 4.4 points; approval movement is smaller than the combined reported survey uncertainty. The negative approval balance remains a national headwind for Milei-aligned candidates, conditional on local alliance and incumbent identity. Poll report
The Junta Electoral governor archive identifies the 2023, 2019 and 2015 completed contests. Current government and polling are not assessed here. The exact 2027 call remains unverified.
Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3
Electoral event evidence
Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.
2023-10-22 · Governor election
Coverage: Certified election-board return; extracted votes and contested seats reconciled
Basis: Governor joint ticket; one governor office. Vice-governor is not counted as another governor seat.
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNION POR LA PATRIA | KICILLOF AXEL | 4,330,482 | 44.94% | 1 |
| JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO | 2,563,582 | 26.61% | 0 | |
| LA LIBERTAD AVANZA | 2,367,294 | 24.57% | 0 | |
| FRENTE DE IZQUIERDA Y TRABAJADORES UNIDAD | 373,819 | 3.88% | 0 |
Result source · PDF pages 1
2019-10-27 · Governor election
Coverage: Certified election-board return; extracted votes and contested seats reconciled
Basis: Governor joint ticket; one governor office. Vice-governor is not counted as another governor seat.
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRENTE DE TODOS | KICILLOF AXEL | 5,274,511 | 52.40% | 1 |
| JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO | 3,852,624 | 38.28% | 0 | |
| CONSENSO FEDERAL | 513,850 | 5.11% | 0 | |
| FTE DE IZQ. Y DE TRABAJADORES-UNIDAD | 282,830 | 2.81% | 0 | |
| FRENTE NOS | 141,249 | 1.40% | 0 |
Result source · PDF pages 1
2015-10-25 · Governor election
Coverage: Certified election-board return; extracted votes and contested seats reconciled
Basis: Governor joint ticket; one governor office. Vice-governor is not counted as another governor seat.
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA CAMBIEMOS BUENOS AIRES | VIDAL MARIA EUGENIA | 3,609,312 | 39.42% | 1 |
| ALIANZA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIA | 3,230,789 | 35.28% | 0 | |
| ALIANZA UNIDOS POR UNA NUEVA ALTERNATIVA | 1,763,241 | 19.26% | 0 | |
| AZA. FTE. DE IZQUIERDA Y LOS TRABAJADORES | 338,159 | 3.69% | 0 | |
| ALIANZA PROGRESISTAS | 215,159 | 2.35% | 0 |
Result source · PDF pages 1
Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record AR-PBA-G.