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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Buenos Aires — Governor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Argentina · Buenos Aires / Buenos Aires · regional · GovernorAR-PBA-G

Read the complete original research briefing

The Junta Electoral governor archive identifies the 2023, 2019 and 2015 completed contests. Current government and polling are not assessed here. The exact 2027 call remains unverified.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Buenos Aires / Buenos Aires
Next election
2027
Linked upcoming event
next-8f3ee9c6dc4e6ad018f85561
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027 is expected (not formally called). Year precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-10-22

unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • UNION POR LA PATRIA44.9%
  • JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO26.6%
  • LA LIBERTAD AVANZA24.6%
  • FRENTE DE IZQUIERDA Y TRABAJADORES UNIDAD3.9%
Results for event-7148d3de87b83779f60ac4a9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNION POR LA PATRIA · KICILLOF AXEL134argentina/Sbaeb2dc0c6/20234,330,48244.9%1Recorded
JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO132argentina/Sbaeb2dc0c6/20232,563,58226.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
LA LIBERTAD AVANZA135argentina/Sbaeb2dc0c6/20232,367,29424.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FRENTE DE IZQUIERDA Y TRABAJADORES UNIDAD136argentina/Sbaeb2dc0c6/2023373,8193.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-10-27

unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • FRENTE DE TODOS52.4%
  • JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO38.3%
  • CONSENSO FEDERAL5.1%
  • FTE DE IZQ. Y DE TRABAJADORES-UNIDAD2.8%
  • FRENTE NOS1.4%
Results for event-181b24e49766c20baaa0673c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FRENTE DE TODOS · KICILLOF AXEL136argentina/S9f2f0cc33d/20195,274,51152.4%1Recorded
JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO135argentina/S9f2f0cc33d/20193,852,62438.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CONSENSO FEDERAL137argentina/S9f2f0cc33d/2019513,8505.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FTE DE IZQ. Y DE TRABAJADORES-UNIDAD133argentina/S9f2f0cc33d/2019282,8302.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FRENTE NOS131argentina/S9f2f0cc33d/2019141,2491.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-10-25

unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • ALIANZA CAMBIEMOS BUENOS AIRES39.4%
  • ALIANZA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIA35.3%
  • ALIANZA UNIDOS POR UNA NUEVA ALTERNATIVA19.3%
  • AZA. FTE. DE IZQUIERDA Y LOS TRABAJADORES3.7%
  • ALIANZA PROGRESISTAS2.4%
Results for event-a804f4f4332b23de0ca72c98
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA CAMBIEMOS BUENOS AIRES · VIDAL MARIA EUGENIA135argentina/S86e6ce945f/20153,609,31239.4%1Recorded
ALIANZA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIA131argentina/S86e6ce945f/20153,230,78935.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR UNA NUEVA ALTERNATIVA138argentina/S86e6ce945f/20151,763,24119.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZA. FTE. DE IZQUIERDA Y LOS TRABAJADORES137argentina/S86e6ce945f/2015338,1593.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA PROGRESISTAS132argentina/S86e6ce945f/2015215,1592.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Cleared CI

21.730–100 historical closeness

Three imported actual events with complete vote vectors

Comparison status: Actual-event review cleared

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=18.338012887568127, oldest_gap=4.1338544840586025, previous_gap=14.126954383995965

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Three imported actual events with complete vote vectors

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Three imported actual events with complete vote vectors

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Three imported actual events with complete vote vectors

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Axel Kicillof (Partido Justicialista); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Directory coalition: Fuerza Patria. Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary verification pending

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

The Junta Electoral governor archive identifies the 2023, 2019 and 2015 completed contests. Current government and polling are not assessed here. The exact 2027 call remains unverified. Missing older local results in several provincial datasets, full seat proclamations, intervened/replacement contests and dated coalition control. Many municipalities vote separately from provincial election day. Final 2027 calls remain subject to official publication. Ten Catamarca 2023 local returns now have primary provisional counts; final certification and older cycles are still missing. DINE 2015 download has no Catamarca local records. Entre Ríos final national consultation warns that foreign-voter tables are excluded. Neuquén final-file links returned access-denied responses; several older links point to private or defunct hosts.

  • other · open

    Open-data copy differs from certified PDF: {"id": "AR-PBA-G", "year": 2015, "issue": "Open-data copy differs from certified PDF", "expected": {"131": 3230576, "132": 215140, "135": 3608131, "137": 338131, "138": 1762839, "133": 0, "1804": 0, "794": 0, "768": 0, "484": 0, "382": 0, "739": 0, "664": 0, "758": 0, "1806": 0, "787": 0, "440": 0, "673": 0, "805": 0, "155": 0, "734": 0, "737": 0, "774": 0, "670": 0, "703": 0, "792": 0, "705": 0, "697": 0, "789": 0, "194": 0, "795": 0, "612": 0}, "actual": {"135": 3609312, "131": 3230789, "138": 1763241, "137": 338159, "132": 215159}, "resolution": "The certified PDF published by the electoral authority is used. The provincial open-data copy is a secondary cross-check and does not override it."}

  • other · open

    Open-data copy differs from certified PDF: {"id": "AR-PBA-G", "year": 2023, "issue": "Open-data copy differs from certified PDF", "expected": {"132": 2557105, "134": 4330482, "135": 2367294, "136": 373819, "642": 0, "944": 0, "942": 0, "298": 0, "951": 0, "948": 0, "297": 0, "903": 0, "921": 0, "962": 0, "2103": 0, "915": 0, "935": 0, "868": 0, "965": 0, "947": 0, "933": 0, "949": 0, "869": 0, "895": 0, "40": 0, "911": 0, "952": 0, "858": 0, "956": 0, "194": 0, "697": 0}, "actual": {"134": 4330482, "132": 2563582, "135": 2367294, "136": 373819}, "resolution": "The certified PDF published by the electoral authority is used. The provincial open-data copy is a secondary cross-check and does not override it."}

  • other · open

    2019 locality result empty: {"issue": "2019 locality result empty", "name": "Distrito Tala-Sarandí", "code": "0079C"}

  • other · open

    Earlier same-election publication superseded: {"id": "AR-TU-D-OESTE", "year": 2019, "issue": "Earlier same-election publication superseded", "selected_publication": "2019-07-02", "discarded_publications": ["2019-06-15"]}

  • other · open

    Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source: {"file": "ar_formosa_2017_archivo_542.pdf", "issue": "Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source", "navigation_year": 2017, "source_date": "2019-06-16"}

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “Buenos Aires — Governor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/AR-PBA-G. Sources: argentina--url-d356368c6da7b00fcb81a13e, argentina--url-d7f31b8bbbe5413ce827a7ab, argentina--url-b9d59547e93aa2acf1665e53, argentina--Sbaeb2dc0c6, argentina--S9f2f0cc33d, argentina--S86e6ce945f.