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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Survey evidence

Polling

National context and local polls, with fieldwork dates, question type, pollster, sample, and methodology. Approval categories are not candidates. Local government-change risk is unassessed unless a calibrated model is supplied.

national · presidential approval

AtlasIntel / Bloomberg

Presidential job approval

Named officeholder in this observation: José Antonio Kast

Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.

Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 1,801.

Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin

National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.

Responses for poll-7899c8306f1881b2aa2d45ee
ResponseValue
Approve50.2%
Disapprove48.2%
Unsure1.6%

Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability

Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained.

national · presidential approval

AtlasIntel / Bloomberg

Presidential job approval

Named officeholder in this observation: José Antonio Kast

Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.

Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 2,069.

Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin

National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.

Responses for poll-3eb397c709e3b2a0446584bf
ResponseValue
Approve54.1%
Disapprove45.8%
Unsure0.1%

Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability

Approval increased 3.9 points and disapproval declined 2.4 points. This is a descriptive two-wave change, not an established long-run trend. The next ordinary subnational cohort is outside the fixed window.