national · vote intention
Datafolha
Hypothetical presidential runoff
Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
Population: National presidential poll; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-09-01–2026-09-02 · published 2026-09-03. Sample 2,002.
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-759b34cd8ce8a4149432a438| Response | Value |
|---|
| Lula (PT) | 46% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 44% |
No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed
Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Lula
Reported margin of error: ±1 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-22–2026-07-27. Sample 5,021.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-65c0265e44d4642b94d20941| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 48% |
| Disapprove | 51% |
| Unsure | 1% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained.
national · presidential approval
AtlasIntel / Bloomberg
Presidential job approval
Named officeholder in this observation: Lula
Reported margin of error: ±1 percentage points.
Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-25–2026-08-30. Sample 5,014.
Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin
National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.
Responses for poll-30eb96282fdf997ea70a8116| Response | Value |
|---|
| Approve | 45% |
| Disapprove | 53% |
| Unsure | 2% |
Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability
Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.