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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Survey evidence

Polling

National context and local polls, with fieldwork dates, question type, pollster, sample, and methodology. Approval categories are not candidates. Local government-change risk is unassessed unless a calibrated model is supplied.

national · presidential approval

AtlasIntel / Bloomberg

Presidential job approval

Named officeholder in this observation: Javier Milei

Reported margin of error: ±3 percentage points.

Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-07-30–2026-08-03. Sample 1,120.

Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin

National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.

Responses for poll-9b314eaa56ed7022dd8198e3
ResponseValue
Approve37.1%
Disapprove62.4%
Unsure0.5%

Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability

Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained.

national · presidential approval

AtlasIntel / Bloomberg

Presidential job approval

Named officeholder in this observation: Javier Milei

Reported margin of error: ±2 percentage points.

Population: National presidential approval; context for subnational races. Fieldwork 2026-08-30–2026-09-03. Sample 2,193.

Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin

National context — not a local forecast and not attached to a municipal office.

Responses for poll-dba1af0e4f24c8fbe556f75c
ResponseValue
Approve38.1%
Disapprove58%
Unsure3.9%

Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability

Approval rose 1.0 percentage point while disapproval fell 4.4 points; approval movement is smaller than the combined reported survey uncertainty. The negative approval balance remains a national headwind for Milei-aligned candidates, conditional on local alliance and incumbent identity.