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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

CAAPUCU / PARAGUARI — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Paraguay · CAAPUCU / PARAGUARI / PARAGUARI · municipal · Municipal councilPY-09-003-C

Read the complete original research briefing

Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
CAAPUCU / PARAGUARI / PARAGUARI
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-985fbb3937df31f102fbcbea
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2021-10-10

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO49.1%
  • PARTIDO COLORADO47.9%
  • CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU3.0%
Results for event-674039eee9a6293e72f3590c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · FELISA FABIOLA AMARILLA VALDEZPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20211,92949.1%6Recorded
PARTIDO COLORADO · DERLIS GUSTAVO ADOLFO PENAYO ARCEANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/20211,88147.9%6Recorded
CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASUCNFGparaguay/S82789e1ede/20211173%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-11-15

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO45.1%
  • PARTIDO COLORADO29.8%
  • CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU19.5%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO PROGRESISTA5.7%
Results for event-f2fa40a1a998d863a5217ecd
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · CARLOS MANUEL ROMERO SELLITTIPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20151,28145.1%6Recorded
PARTIDO COLORADO · MARIA ELISA ESPINOLA DE VILLALBAANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/201584529.8%4Recorded
CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASUFGparaguay/S82789e1ede/201555319.5%2Recorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO PROGRESISTAPDPparaguay/S82789e1ede/20151615.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2010-11-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO54.4%
  • PARTIDO COLORADO27.9%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO PROGRESISTA12.6%
  • UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS5.1%
Results for event-1fa655ef2ea6ad5777efc1c7
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · LUIS CARLOS SAUCEDO MARIÑOPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20101,19454.4%7Recorded
PARTIDO COLORADO · TEOFILO DIAZANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/201061127.9%4Recorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO PROGRESISTA · JUAN CARLOS CESPEDES DIAZPDPparaguay/S82789e1ede/201027612.6%1Recorded
UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS · DARIO ADOLFO ENCISO LOPEZUNACEparaguay/S82789e1ede/20101125.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

Other events (not selected cycles)

  • 1996-11-17 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
  • 2001-11-18 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
  • 2006-11-19 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

60.010–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.2223071046600467, oldest_gap=26.584587323301413, previous_gap=15.35211267605634

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

22.16percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[47.89915966386555,49.12146676852559,0,0,0,2.9793735676088615,0],[29.753521126760564,45.105633802816904,0,0,0,19.471830985915492,5.669014084507042],[27.861377108983127,54.44596443228454,0,0,5.107159142726858,0,12.585499316005471]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

21.36percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[47.89915966386555,49.12146676852559,0,0,0,2.9793735676088615,0],[29.753521126760564,45.105633802816904,0,0,0,19.471830985915492,5.669014084507042],[27.861377108983127,54.44596443228454,0,0,5.107159142726858,0,12.585499316005471]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

21.76percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[47.89915966386555,49.12146676852559,0,0,0,2.9793735676088615,0],[29.753521126760564,45.105633802816904,0,0,0,19.471830985915492,5.669014084507042],[27.861377108983127,54.44596443228454,0,0,5.107159142726858,0,12.585499316005471]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification. Replacement elections sometimes contain only winner/seat evidence. New municipalities, boundary/party continuity and dated control remain incomplete. The separate ordinary-election baseline helps historical comparison but does not fill replacement losing-vote gaps.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “CAAPUCU / PARAGUARI — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PY-09-003-C. Sources: paraguay--url-7428974d1a7032fc28d114b3, paraguay--S82789e1ede, paraguay--Sebfa7a567d.