Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

NUEVA LONDRES / CAAGUAZU — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Paraguay · NUEVA LONDRES / CAAGUAZU / CAAGUAZU · municipal · Municipal councilPY-05-019-C

Read the complete original research briefing

Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
NUEVA LONDRES / CAAGUAZU / CAAGUAZU
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-52a8f4b08f5aa53ac96f703e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2021-10-10

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO COLORADO54.1%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO38.8%
  • PARTIDO PATRIA QUERIDA7.2%
Results for event-f3d493ef8151bc9193db4fa1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO COLORADO · RUTH KELLY SMITH GIMENEZANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/20211,58254.1%5Recorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · ELIGIO MANUEL SOLIS ORTIZPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20211,13438.8%4Recorded
PARTIDO PATRIA QUERIDA · DIONICIO JAVIER GAVILAN CABALLEROPPQparaguay/S82789e1ede/20212107.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-11-15

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO43.5%
  • PARTIDO COLORADO42.6%
  • CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU8.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECOLOGISTA VERDE PARAGUAY3.8%
  • PARTIDO UNACE1.2%
Results for event-db1136bb52b2ec6c60a226c3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · ELIGIO MANUEL SOLIS ORTIZPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20151,07043.5%4Recorded
PARTIDO COLORADO · DAVID SMITH KENNEDYANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/20151,04742.6%4Recorded
CONCERTACION NACIONAL FRENTE GUASU · DAMIAN AGUILAR SEGOVIAFGparaguay/S82789e1ede/20152198.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECOLOGISTA VERDE PARAGUAYMOEVEparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015943.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO UNACE · ERICO RAFAEL INVERNIZZIUNACEparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015301.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2010-11-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO COLORADO44.4%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO35.3%
  • PARTIDO PATRIA QUERIDA9.9%
  • UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS8.5%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO PROGRESISTA2.0%
Results for event-19da635d340ebd2a2a84e386
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO COLORADO · OSCAR JAVIER GONZALEZ SMITHANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/201088244.4%5Recorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICOPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/201070135.3%3Recorded
PARTIDO PATRIA QUERIDAPPQparaguay/S82789e1ede/20101969.9%1Recorded
UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS · TEODOCIO ARIASUNACEparaguay/S82789e1ede/20101698.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO PROGRESISTAPDPparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010402%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

Other events (not selected cycles)

  • 1996-11-17 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
  • 2001-11-18 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
  • 2006-11-19 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

48.110–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=15.311004784688997, oldest_gap=9.104627766599599, previous_gap=0.9349593495934911

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

18.68percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[54.066985645933016,38.75598086124402,0,7.177033492822966,0,0,0],[42.5609756097561,43.49593495934959,0,0,1.2195121951219512,8.902439024390244,3.821138211382114],[44.36619718309859,35.26156941649899,0,9.859154929577464,8.501006036217303,0,2.0120724346076457]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

18.95percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[54.066985645933016,38.75598086124402,0,7.177033492822966,0,0,0],[42.5609756097561,43.49593495934959,0,0,1.2195121951219512,8.902439024390244,3.821138211382114],[44.36619718309859,35.26156941649899,0,9.859154929577464,8.501006036217303,0,2.0120724346076457]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

18.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[54.066985645933016,38.75598086124402,0,7.177033492822966,0,0,0],[42.5609756097561,43.49593495934959,0,0,1.2195121951219512,8.902439024390244,3.821138211382114],[44.36619718309859,35.26156941649899,0,9.859154929577464,8.501006036217303,0,2.0120724346076457]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification. Replacement elections sometimes contain only winner/seat evidence. New municipalities, boundary/party continuity and dated control remain incomplete. The separate ordinary-election baseline helps historical comparison but does not fill replacement losing-vote gaps.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “NUEVA LONDRES / CAAGUAZU — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PY-05-019-C. Sources: paraguay--url-7428974d1a7032fc28d114b3, paraguay--S82789e1ede, paraguay--Sebfa7a567d.