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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

3 DE FEBRERO / CAAGUAZU — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Paraguay · 3 DE FEBRERO / CAAGUAZU / CAAGUAZU · municipal · Municipal councilPY-05-001-C

Read the complete original research briefing

Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
3 DE FEBRERO / CAAGUAZU / CAAGUAZU
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-f9116ff6cd975bd1c3faaf87
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2021-10-10

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO COLORADO50.3%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO49.7%
Results for event-45e02af9649c8927934e02ab
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO COLORADO · ZUNILDA ESPERANZA LOPEZ DE CORONELANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/20212,63950.3%5Recorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · DERLIS OLMEDO MENDOZAPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20212,61249.7%4Recorded

2015-11-15

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO52.1%
  • PARTIDO COLORADO47.9%
Results for event-0bdfd0a8ce8264aa7a04fea9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · TULIO DAVID MATTO OLMEDOPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20152,48052.1%5Recorded
PARTIDO COLORADO · JOAQUIN LOPEZ FERNANDEZANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/20152,28047.9%4Recorded

2010-11-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO50.3%
  • PARTIDO COLORADO47.6%
  • PARTIDO ENCUENTRO NACIONAL1.2%
  • UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS0.9%
Results for event-cfa57edbafac65a5bd4545e4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · DERLIS OLMEDO MENDOZAPLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/20101,88850.3%5Recorded
PARTIDO COLORADO · JOAQUIN LOPEZ FERNANDEZANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/20101,78447.6%4Recorded
PARTIDO ENCUENTRO NACIONAL · JORGE MILCIADES AMARILLA SAMUDIOPENparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010461.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION NACIONAL DE CIUDADANOS ETICOS · LEONARDO CENTURION CAIREUNACEparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010320.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

Other events (not selected cycles)

  • 1996-11-17 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
  • 2001-11-18 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
  • 2006-11-19 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

90.770–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.514187773757385, oldest_gap=2.7733333333333334, previous_gap=4.201680672268907

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

2.36percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[50.25709388687869,49.74290611312131,0,0,0,0,0],[47.89915966386555,52.10084033613445,0,0,0,0,0],[47.57333333333333,50.346666666666664,1.2266666666666666,0,0.8533333333333334,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

2.08percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[50.25709388687869,49.74290611312131,0,0,0,0,0],[47.89915966386555,52.10084033613445,0,0,0,0,0],[47.57333333333333,50.346666666666664,1.2266666666666666,0,0.8533333333333334,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

2.22percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[50.25709388687869,49.74290611312131,0,0,0,0,0],[47.89915966386555,52.10084033613445,0,0,0,0,0],[47.57333333333333,50.346666666666664,1.2266666666666666,0,0.8533333333333334,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification. Replacement elections sometimes contain only winner/seat evidence. New municipalities, boundary/party continuity and dated control remain incomplete. The separate ordinary-election baseline helps historical comparison but does not fill replacement losing-vote gaps.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “3 DE FEBRERO / CAAGUAZU — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PY-05-001-C. Sources: paraguay--url-7428974d1a7032fc28d114b3, paraguay--S82789e1ede, paraguay--Sebfa7a567d.