Office briefing
NATALICIO TALAVERA / GUAIRA — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Paraguay · NATALICIO TALAVERA / GUAIRA / GUAIRA · municipal · MayorPY-04-023-M
Read the complete original research briefing
Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- NATALICIO TALAVERA / GUAIRA / GUAIRA
- Next election
- 2026-10-04
- Linked upcoming event
- next-51608a39c55fad3c2874be5d
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2021-10-10
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO51.8%
- PARTIDO COLORADO48.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · FELIX MARTINEZ RIVERO | PLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 1,298 | 51.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLORADO · GUSTAVO GIMENEZ SILVERO | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2021 | 1,206 | 48.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-11-15
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO COLORADO55.7%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO44.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO COLORADO · GUSTAVO GIMENEZ SILVERO | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 1,234 | 55.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL RADICAL AUTENTICO · FELIX MARTINEZ RIVERO | PLRAparaguay/S82789e1ede/2015 | 981 | 44.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2010-11-07
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO COLORADO50.4%
- ALIANZA JUNTOS PARA LA VICTORIA DEL DISTRITO DE NATALICIO TA48.9%
- MOVIMIENTO 20 DE ABRIL0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO COLORADO · GUSTAVO GIMENEZ SILVERO | ANRparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 916 | 50.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA JUNTOS PARA LA VICTORIA DEL DISTRITO DE NATALICIO TA · MIGUEL MARTINEZ VERA | AJVDNTparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 888 | 48.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO 20 DE ABRIL · ALDO MIGUEL OVIEDO | M20Aparaguay/S82789e1ede/2010 | 13 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
Other events (not selected cycles)
- 1996-11-17 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
- 2001-11-18 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
- 2006-11-19 · Ordinary · Legal certification not established
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI71.070–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=3.674121405750796, oldest_gap=1.541001651073195, previous_gap=11.422121896162523
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility7.55percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[48.1629392971246,51.8370607028754,0,0,0,0,0],[55.71106094808126,44.28893905191874,0,0,0,0,0],[50.41276829939461,0,0,0,0,0,49.58723170060539]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility49.59percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[48.1629392971246,51.8370607028754,0,0,0,0,0],[55.71106094808126,44.28893905191874,0,0,0,0,0],[50.41276829939461,0,0,0,0,0,49.58723170060539]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility28.57percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ANR","PLRA","PEN","PPQ","UNACE","Frente Guasu","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[48.1629392971246,51.8370607028754,0,0,0,0,0],[55.71106094808126,44.28893905191874,0,0,0,0,0],[50.41276829939461,0,0,0,0,0,49.58723170060539]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Municipality matched by department and name, with documented abbreviation/rename bridges. Historical numeric district codes are not stable. This is an identity bridge, not proof of unchanged boundaries. Replacement archive runs through November 2025; later events/current control require verification. Replacement elections sometimes contain only winner/seat evidence. New municipalities, boundary/party continuity and dated control remain incomplete. The separate ordinary-election baseline helps historical comparison but does not fill replacement losing-vote gaps.
Sources
- Paraguay: https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv · rights unknown
- Paraguay: Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv · rights unknown
- Paraguay: Electos-dhont-1996-a-2025-munic-gene-complem-votospreferentes-251125.csv · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “NATALICIO TALAVERA / GUAIRA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PY-04-023-M. Sources: paraguay--url-7428974d1a7032fc28d114b3, paraguay--S82789e1ede, paraguay--Sebfa7a567d.