Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

ANCASH / CARLOS FERMIN FITZCARRALD / YAUYA — District municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · ANCASH / CARLOS FERMIN FITZCARRALD / YAUYA / ANCASH · municipal · District municipal ballotPE-fcc4a882ec5cde

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ANCASH / CARLOS FERMIN FITZCARRALD / YAUYA / ANCASH
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-312018916d82347f1b3f9769
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU47.2%
  • ALIANZA GOBIERNO UNIDAD Y ACCION - AGUA23.7%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE18.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITO7.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANO3.1%
Results for event-9688ed36d7268ccb0bad3028
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/Sc91a28be23/20221,04947.2%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA GOBIERNO UNIDAD Y ACCION - AGUAperu/Sc91a28be23/202252623.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/Sc91a28be23/202241518.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITOperu/Sc91a28be23/20221647.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANOperu/Sc91a28be23/2022683.1%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITO38.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANO38.5%
  • EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTAD18.6%
  • UNION POR EL PERU3.0%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU0.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL RIO SANTA CAUDALOSO0.4%
  • ACCION POPULAR0.0%
Results for event-a0087031edc6847814b5a620
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITOperu/S3a6d07677a/201892038.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANOperu/S3a6d07677a/201891238.5%UnknownRecorded
EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTADperu/S3a6d07677a/201844018.6%UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/2018713%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/2018160.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL RIO SANTA CAUDALOSOperu/S3a6d07677a/2018100.4%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO37.1%
  • UNION POR EL PERU27.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANO19.8%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA11.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL PURO ANCASH3.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL ANDE - MAR0.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITO0.5%
Results for event-e90f9ea29438ffb21add3408
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201482137.1%UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201460927.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANOperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201443919.8%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201424511.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL PURO ANCASHperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014713.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL ANDE - MARperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014170.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITOperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014100.5%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

24.090–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=23.537353735373536, oldest_gap=9.584086799276676, previous_gap=0.33769523005486946

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

46.53percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,47.20972097209721,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.790279027902784],[0,0.6753904601097509,0,0,0,0,2.9970451667370197,0,96.32756437315324],[37.11573236889693,0,0,0,0,0,27.531645569620252,0,35.352622061482826]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

61.65percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,47.20972097209721,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.790279027902784],[0,0.6753904601097509,0,0,0,0,2.9970451667370197,0,96.32756437315324],[37.11573236889693,0,0,0,0,0,27.531645569620252,0,35.352622061482826]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

54.09percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,47.20972097209721,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.790279027902784],[0,0.6753904601097509,0,0,0,0,2.9970451667370197,0,96.32756437315324],[37.11573236889693,0,0,0,0,0,27.531645569620252,0,35.352622061482826]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “ANCASH / CARLOS FERMIN FITZCARRALD / YAUYA — District municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-fcc4a882ec5cde. Sources: peru--url-9bd067e0afb3adebfbe26129, peru--url-d2ce24b0d891532338ce443b, peru--url-70fbea0821c469ccfe91fe2c, peru--Sc91a28be23, peru--S3a6d07677a, peru--Sf2ea9fdc53.