Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

ICA / CHINCHA — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · ICA / CHINCHA / ICA · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-f4842a2630fc60

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ICA / CHINCHA / ICA
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-0050e6a0d3e77c6acc21711d
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO41.6%
  • UNO POR ICA16.0%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU15.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL OBRAS POR LA MODERNIDAD6.4%
  • RENOVACION POPULAR5.8%
  • PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 20215.6%
  • PODEMOS PERU3.4%
  • ACCION POPULAR2.7%
  • JUNTOS POR EL PERU1.7%
  • FUERZA POPULAR1.7%
Results for event-58175aae51e7ceedb7289266
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/202253,45941.6%UnknownRecorded
UNO POR ICAperu/S3bc179da18/202220,53816%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/202219,48315.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL OBRAS POR LA MODERNIDADperu/S3bc179da18/20228,2086.4%UnknownRecorded
RENOVACION POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20227,3905.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 2021peru/S3bc179da18/20227,2485.6%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20224,3523.4%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20223,5022.7%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20222,1921.7%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20222,1321.7%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • UNIDOS POR LA REGION25.8%
  • AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIAL18.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL OBRAS POR LA MODERNIDAD15.9%
  • PERU PATRIA SEGURA8.5%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA6.3%
  • ACCION POPULAR5.4%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO5.0%
  • FUERZA POPULAR4.9%
  • UNION POR EL PERU3.2%
  • TODOS POR EL PERU2.1%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU1.9%
  • PERU NACION0.8%
  • VAMOS PERU0.7%
  • JUNTOS POR EL PERU0.6%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU0.0%
Results for event-c1f6ea8bcdc4d4ed9c0a298c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDOS POR LA REGIONperu/Sbbedb7d378/201831,47625.8%UnknownRecorded
AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIALperu/Sbbedb7d378/201823,07218.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL OBRAS POR LA MODERNIDADperu/Sbbedb7d378/201819,36415.9%UnknownRecorded
PERU PATRIA SEGURAperu/Sbbedb7d378/201810,3668.5%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20187,7326.3%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186,5845.4%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186,0605%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20185,9504.9%UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183,8603.2%UnknownRecorded
TODOS POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,5872.1%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,3181.9%UnknownRecorded
PERU NACIONperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,0170.8%UnknownRecorded
VAMOS PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20188900.7%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20187680.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL OBRAS POR LA MODERNIDAD20.9%
  • UNIDOS POR LA REGION20.6%
  • PARTIDO REGIONAL DE INTEGRACION14.5%
  • SOLIDARIDAD NACIONAL10.8%
  • FUERZA POPULAR10.2%
  • ALIANZA REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTE8.0%
  • UNION POR EL PERU6.4%
  • ACCION POPULAR2.4%
  • PERU PATRIA SEGURA2.0%
  • PARTIDO HUMANISTA PERUANO1.5%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO1.4%
  • RESTAURACION NACIONAL1.4%
Results for event-8185b7f1ebee5d92a7e0d51a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL OBRAS POR LA MODERNIDADperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201424,26320.9%UnknownRecorded
UNIDOS POR LA REGIONperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201424,00320.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO REGIONAL DE INTEGRACIONperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201416,87014.5%UnknownRecorded
SOLIDARIDAD NACIONALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201412,59110.8%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201411,82410.2%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTEperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20149,2548%UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20147,4336.4%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,7972.4%UnknownRecorded
PERU PATRIA SEGURAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,3462%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO HUMANISTA PERUANOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,7271.5%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,6601.4%UnknownRecorded
RESTAURACION NACIONALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,5731.4%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

12.70–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=25.618657784971674, oldest_gap=0.22348097403322953, previous_gap=6.886041099931173

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

51.8percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[41.60103965635311,15.161395754217768,2.7252069974475503,1.659092323974351,0,0,0,0,38.85326526800722],[4.965422306709056,0,5.394775654681918,4.875290878699485,0,0,3.162793746517649,0,81.60171741339188],[1.4268400649813908,0,2.4041395552728617,10.16322706526504,0,0,6.388977230726915,0,79.61681608375379]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

8.51percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[41.60103965635311,15.161395754217768,2.7252069974475503,1.659092323974351,0,0,0,0,38.85326526800722],[4.965422306709056,0,5.394775654681918,4.875290878699485,0,0,3.162793746517649,0,81.60171741339188],[1.4268400649813908,0,2.4041395552728617,10.16322706526504,0,0,6.388977230726915,0,79.61681608375379]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

30.16percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[41.60103965635311,15.161395754217768,2.7252069974475503,1.659092323974351,0,0,0,0,38.85326526800722],[4.965422306709056,0,5.394775654681918,4.875290878699485,0,0,3.162793746517649,0,81.60171741339188],[1.4268400649813908,0,2.4041395552728617,10.16322706526504,0,0,6.388977230726915,0,79.61681608375379]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “ICA / CHINCHA — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-f4842a2630fc60. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.