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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AREQUIPA / CARAVELI / CHAPARRA — District municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AREQUIPA / CARAVELI / CHAPARRA / AREQUIPA · municipal · District municipal ballotPE-ed4b990007fc8f

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AREQUIPA / CARAVELI / CHAPARRA / AREQUIPA
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-d51fa0306c591ce702cd312a
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • YO AREQUIPA33.7%
  • JUNTOS POR EL PERU27.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO20.9%
  • JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPA8.7%
  • RENOVACION POPULAR5.5%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE2.1%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA1.5%
Results for event-16b7b526518726177d3e86e1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
YO AREQUIPAperu/Sc91a28be23/202245933.7%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL PERUperu/Sc91a28be23/202237527.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sc91a28be23/202228420.9%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sc91a28be23/20221198.7%UnknownRecorded
RENOVACION POPULARperu/Sc91a28be23/2022755.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/Sc91a28be23/2022282.1%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/Sc91a28be23/2022211.5%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACION27.5%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA22.3%
  • JUNTOS POR EL SUR21.1%
  • UNION POR EL PERU19.3%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO3.8%
  • AREQUIPA RENACE3.4%
  • ACCION POPULAR1.8%
  • AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIO0.7%
Results for event-0a95e578233a37386b16312e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACIONperu/S3a6d07677a/201834527.5%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/S3a6d07677a/201827922.3%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL SURperu/S3a6d07677a/201826521.1%UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/201824219.3%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3a6d07677a/2018473.8%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/S3a6d07677a/2018433.4%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S3a6d07677a/2018231.8%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIOperu/S3a6d07677a/201890.7%UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTURO41.8%
  • JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPA37.0%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA15.7%
  • ACCION POPULAR3.7%
  • VAMOS AREQUIPA1.8%
Results for event-06f2642be82dc012fcd024b7
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTUROperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201461441.8%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201454337%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201423015.7%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014553.7%UnknownRecorded
VAMOS AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014271.8%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

71.170–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=6.1719324026451154, oldest_gap=4.833219877467663, previous_gap=5.267358339984039

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

21.15percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[20.867009551800148,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.13299044819985],[3.750997605746209,0,1.8355945730247407,0,0,0,19.31364724660814,0,75.0997605746209],[0,0,3.7440435670524166,0,0,0,0,0,96.2559564329476]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

23.06percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[20.867009551800148,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.13299044819985],[3.750997605746209,0,1.8355945730247407,0,0,0,19.31364724660814,0,75.0997605746209],[0,0,3.7440435670524166,0,0,0,0,0,96.2559564329476]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

22.11percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[20.867009551800148,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.13299044819985],[3.750997605746209,0,1.8355945730247407,0,0,0,19.31364724660814,0,75.0997605746209],[0,0,3.7440435670524166,0,0,0,0,0,96.2559564329476]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AREQUIPA / CARAVELI / CHAPARRA — District municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-ed4b990007fc8f. Sources: peru--url-9bd067e0afb3adebfbe26129, peru--url-d2ce24b0d891532338ce443b, peru--url-70fbea0821c469ccfe91fe2c, peru--Sc91a28be23, peru--S3a6d07677a, peru--Sf2ea9fdc53.