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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AMAZONAS / BAGUA — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AMAZONAS / BAGUA / AMAZONAS · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-cd061fc4a61262

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AMAZONAS / BAGUA / AMAZONAS
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-c293a9cf1ea439bce10c7b3e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL VICTORIA AMAZONENSE31.3%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO18.0%
  • SENTIMIENTO AMAZONENSE REGIONAL17.1%
  • RENOVACION POPULAR13.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AMAZONENSE UNIDOS AL CAMPO12.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL ENERGIA COMUNAL AMAZONICA5.5%
  • FUERZA POPULAR2.1%
  • PARTIDO MORADO0.2%
Results for event-4cd65f6f66280e3587eb317e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL VICTORIA AMAZONENSEperu/S3bc179da18/202211,20431.3%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/20226,45818%UnknownRecorded
SENTIMIENTO AMAZONENSE REGIONALperu/S3bc179da18/20226,11817.1%UnknownRecorded
RENOVACION POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20224,73913.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AMAZONENSE UNIDOS AL CAMPOperu/S3bc179da18/20224,50712.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL ENERGIA COMUNAL AMAZONICAperu/S3bc179da18/20221,9675.5%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20227602.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO MORADOperu/S3bc179da18/2022790.2%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA AMAZONENSE23.5%
  • SENTIMIENTO AMAZONENSE REGIONAL21.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE SURGE AMAZONAS19.7%
  • FUERZA POPULAR12.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL ENERGIA COMUNAL AMAZONICA9.5%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO6.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AMAZONENSE UNIDOS AL CAMPO6.1%
  • PERU LIBERTARIO0.3%
  • EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTAD0.0%
  • FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP0.0%
  • PERU NACION0.0%
  • PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIO0.0%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU0.0%
  • UNION POR EL PERU0.0%
  • VAMOS PERU0.0%
Results for event-5b3174c48952add02950bc04
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA AMAZONENSEperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186,44523.5%UnknownRecorded
SENTIMIENTO AMAZONENSE REGIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20185,85721.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE SURGE AMAZONASperu/Sbbedb7d378/20185,39319.7%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183,46712.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL ENERGIA COMUNAL AMAZONICAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,5909.5%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,8546.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AMAZONENSE UNIDOS AL CAMPOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,6836.1%UnknownRecorded
PERU LIBERTARIOperu/Sbbedb7d378/2018950.3%UnknownRecorded
EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTADperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAPperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PERU NACIONperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
VAMOS PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • SENTIMIENTO AMAZONENSE REGIONAL25.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE SURGE AMAZONAS21.0%
  • UNIDAD Y DEMOCRACIA DE AMAZONAS17.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AMAZONENSE UNIDOS AL CAMPO10.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA AMAZONENSE9.3%
  • TODOS SOMOS AMAZONAS6.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO6.0%
  • OBRAS POR AMAZONAS2.3%
  • PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC1.0%
Results for event-a0b620b34e25cb034f5ac95d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
SENTIMIENTO AMAZONENSE REGIONALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20148,62625.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE SURGE AMAZONASperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20147,01821%UnknownRecorded
UNIDAD Y DEMOCRACIA DE AMAZONASperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20145,82717.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AMAZONENSE UNIDOS AL CAMPOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143,57610.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA AMAZONENSEperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143,1299.3%UnknownRecorded
TODOS SOMOS AMAZONASperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,1976.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,0066%UnknownRecorded
OBRAS POR AMAZONASperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20147722.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPCperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143211%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

54.640–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.245144005358338, oldest_gap=4.804015296367112, previous_gap=2.14723926380368

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

11.25percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[18.022996204509937,0,0,2.1210091538289797,0,0,0,0,79.85599464166108],[6.7703768624014025,0,0,12.660677768039731,0,0,0,0,80.56894536955888],[5.993068833652008,0,0,0,0,0.9590105162523901,0,0,93.0479206500956]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

13.44percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[18.022996204509937,0,0,2.1210091538289797,0,0,0,0,79.85599464166108],[6.7703768624014025,0,0,12.660677768039731,0,0,0,0,80.56894536955888],[5.993068833652008,0,0,0,0,0.9590105162523901,0,0,93.0479206500956]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

12.35percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[18.022996204509937,0,0,2.1210091538289797,0,0,0,0,79.85599464166108],[6.7703768624014025,0,0,12.660677768039731,0,0,0,0,80.56894536955888],[5.993068833652008,0,0,0,0,0.9590105162523901,0,0,93.0479206500956]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AMAZONAS / BAGUA — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-cd061fc4a61262. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.