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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AREQUIPA / CAMANA / MARIANO NICOLAS VALCARCEL — District municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AREQUIPA / CAMANA / MARIANO NICOLAS VALCARCEL / AREQUIPA · municipal · District municipal ballotPE-cb92446d03702f

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AREQUIPA / CAMANA / MARIANO NICOLAS VALCARCEL / AREQUIPA
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-8ec9704c16d3f6d6d0ca4d73
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE27.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL REVALORA24.4%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA21.6%
  • AREQUIPA RENACE14.4%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU6.3%
  • AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTURO2.8%
  • AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACION2.6%
Results for event-d81bd6c65e0780fa8b841432
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/Sc91a28be23/202259327.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL REVALORAperu/Sc91a28be23/202251924.4%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/Sc91a28be23/202245821.6%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/Sc91a28be23/202230614.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/Sc91a28be23/20221336.3%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTUROperu/Sc91a28be23/2022592.8%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACIONperu/Sc91a28be23/2022552.6%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO47.3%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA38.0%
  • AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIO8.1%
  • AREQUIPA RENACE5.7%
  • ACCION POPULAR1.0%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU0.0%
  • RESTAURACION NACIONAL0.0%
  • VAMOS PERU0.0%
  • AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACION0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOS0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTE AREQUIPA MIA0.0%
Results for event-009d27e29cae5c7aaf7f7944
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3a6d07677a/201882747.3%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/S3a6d07677a/201866538%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIOperu/S3a6d07677a/20181418.1%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/S3a6d07677a/2018995.7%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S3a6d07677a/2018181%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
RESTAURACION NACIONALperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
VAMOS PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACIONperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOSperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTE AREQUIPA MIAperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA42.8%
  • AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTURO21.6%
  • AREQUIPA RENACE15.3%
  • VAMOS AREQUIPA6.6%
  • JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPA5.7%
  • VAMOS PERU4.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AREQUIPA3.5%
Results for event-93f73dcb1939e766f3c08227
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201456842.8%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTUROperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201428721.6%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201420315.3%UnknownRecorded
VAMOS AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014876.6%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014765.7%UnknownRecorded
VAMOS PERUperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014614.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014463.5%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

65.080–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=3.4856335374470078, oldest_gap=21.15963855421687, previous_gap=9.25714285714286

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.29percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,6.264719736222327,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.73528026377767],[47.25714285714286,0,1.0285714285714285,0,0,0,0,0,51.714285714285715],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,6.264719736222327,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.73528026377767],[47.25714285714286,0,1.0285714285714285,0,0,0,0,0,51.714285714285715],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,6.264719736222327,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.73528026377767],[47.25714285714286,0,1.0285714285714285,0,0,0,0,0,51.714285714285715],null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AREQUIPA / CAMANA / MARIANO NICOLAS VALCARCEL — District municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-cb92446d03702f. Sources: peru--url-9bd067e0afb3adebfbe26129, peru--url-d2ce24b0d891532338ce443b, peru--url-70fbea0821c469ccfe91fe2c, peru--Sc91a28be23, peru--S3a6d07677a, peru--Sf2ea9fdc53.