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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

SAN MARTIN / EL DORADO — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · SAN MARTIN / EL DORADO / SAN MARTIN · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-8fac8417401643

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
SAN MARTIN / EL DORADO / SAN MARTIN
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-e1075fb7360e5f4ee0272561
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ACCION POPULAR41.1%
  • AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIAL21.6%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU18.4%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO8.5%
  • PODEMOS PERU5.3%
  • UNION REGIONAL4.9%
Results for event-97fe4df28bc1b55e73385214
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ACCION POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20228,77941.1%UnknownRecorded
AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIALperu/S3bc179da18/20224,61821.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20223,93818.4%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/20221,8248.5%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20221,1415.3%UnknownRecorded
UNION REGIONALperu/S3bc179da18/20221,0554.9%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • VAMOS PERU25.8%
  • NUEVA AMAZONIA17.4%
  • ACCION POPULAR17.0%
  • ACCION REGIONAL13.3%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO12.4%
  • FUERZA POPULAR7.4%
  • MAS SAN MARTIN3.7%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO3.0%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA0.0%
Results for event-800a2aed30efbc6a63094120
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
VAMOS PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184,75125.8%UnknownRecorded
NUEVA AMAZONIAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183,19617.4%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183,12517%UnknownRecorded
ACCION REGIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,44513.3%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,27612.4%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,3707.4%UnknownRecorded
MAS SAN MARTINperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186813.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20185473%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO28.1%
  • FUERZA POPULAR25.4%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO17.4%
  • ACCION POPULAR15.2%
  • NUEVA AMAZONIA13.8%
Results for event-c435dbd5cbf726a35cb1fef5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20144,98428.1%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20144,50625.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143,08417.4%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,68915.2%UnknownRecorded
NUEVA AMAZONIAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,45213.8%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

27.510–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=19.484898150316088, oldest_gap=2.698278295230029, previous_gap=8.455222663259203

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

42.56percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[8.541325216576913,18.440646218684147,41.109810348864436,0,0,0,0,0,31.9082182158745],[12.375618509053341,0,16.99200695992605,7.449295851231581,2.974280898265456,0,0,0,60.20879778152358],[28.134349421394298,0,15.179226644086931,25.43607112616427,17.408975444538527,0,0,0,13.841377363815974]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.18percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[8.541325216576913,18.440646218684147,41.109810348864436,0,0,0,0,0,31.9082182158745],[12.375618509053341,0,16.99200695992605,7.449295851231581,2.974280898265456,0,0,0,60.20879778152358],[28.134349421394298,0,15.179226644086931,25.43607112616427,17.408975444538527,0,0,0,13.841377363815974]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.37percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[8.541325216576913,18.440646218684147,41.109810348864436,0,0,0,0,0,31.9082182158745],[12.375618509053341,0,16.99200695992605,7.449295851231581,2.974280898265456,0,0,0,60.20879778152358],[28.134349421394298,0,15.179226644086931,25.43607112616427,17.408975444538527,0,0,0,13.841377363815974]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “SAN MARTIN / EL DORADO — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-8fac8417401643. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.