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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AREQUIPA / ISLAY / DEAN VALDIVIA — District municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AREQUIPA / ISLAY / DEAN VALDIVIA / AREQUIPA · municipal · District municipal ballotPE-85ef41b31098c1

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AREQUIPA / ISLAY / DEAN VALDIVIA / AREQUIPA
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-a4ccd3d0578e8e2903c92d29
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • JUNTOS POR EL PERU23.8%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE23.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOS23.6%
  • YO AREQUIPA17.7%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO5.3%
  • AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTURO3.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL REVALORA2.7%
Results for event-bd786a2c590ffcbcca461066
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
JUNTOS POR EL PERUperu/Sc91a28be23/20221,00723.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/Sc91a28be23/20221,00123.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOSperu/Sc91a28be23/202299823.6%UnknownRecorded
YO AREQUIPAperu/Sc91a28be23/202274817.7%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sc91a28be23/20222255.3%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTUROperu/Sc91a28be23/20221373.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL REVALORAperu/Sc91a28be23/20221152.7%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • JUNTOS POR EL SUR27.7%
  • EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTAD24.9%
  • PERU LIBERTARIO21.0%
  • ACCION POPULAR12.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTE AREQUIPA MIA9.0%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU3.6%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO1.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO0.0%
  • AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIO0.0%
  • AREQUIPA RENACE0.0%
  • AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACION0.0%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOS0.0%
Results for event-cbda5c8be8751a907de7c032
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
JUNTOS POR EL SURperu/S3a6d07677a/20181,07327.7%UnknownRecorded
EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTADperu/S3a6d07677a/201896524.9%UnknownRecorded
PERU LIBERTARIOperu/S3a6d07677a/201881321%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S3a6d07677a/201847212.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTE AREQUIPA MIAperu/S3a6d07677a/20183479%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20181413.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/S3a6d07677a/2018621.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIOperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACIONperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOSperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIO28.7%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA20.7%
  • INTEGRACION ISLAY17.9%
  • AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTURO9.4%
  • VAMOS AREQUIPA8.9%
  • ACCION POPULAR8.7%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA5.1%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AREQUIPA0.5%
Results for event-3438c37128719d9c3a215025
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIOperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/20141,06428.7%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201477020.7%UnknownRecorded
INTEGRACION ISLAYperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201466617.9%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTUROperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/20143509.4%UnknownRecorded
VAMOS AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/20143298.9%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/20143248.7%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/20141915.1%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014190.5%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

91.430–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.14181044670290888, oldest_gap=7.918125504982495, previous_gap=2.788536018590243

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

17.43percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[5.317891751359017,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.68210824864099],[0,3.640588690937258,12.186935192357346,0,1.6008262328943972,0,0,0,82.57164988381099],[0,0,8.72609749528683,0,0,0,0,0,91.27390250471316]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

8.7percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[5.317891751359017,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.68210824864099],[0,3.640588690937258,12.186935192357346,0,1.6008262328943972,0,0,0,82.57164988381099],[0,0,8.72609749528683,0,0,0,0,0,91.27390250471316]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

13.07percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[5.317891751359017,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.68210824864099],[0,3.640588690937258,12.186935192357346,0,1.6008262328943972,0,0,0,82.57164988381099],[0,0,8.72609749528683,0,0,0,0,0,91.27390250471316]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AREQUIPA / ISLAY / DEAN VALDIVIA — District municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-85ef41b31098c1. Sources: peru--url-9bd067e0afb3adebfbe26129, peru--url-d2ce24b0d891532338ce443b, peru--url-70fbea0821c469ccfe91fe2c, peru--Sc91a28be23, peru--S3a6d07677a, peru--Sf2ea9fdc53.