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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

TUMBES / CONTRALMIRANTE VILLAR — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · TUMBES / CONTRALMIRANTE VILLAR / TUMBES · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-7b959e94f3eff1

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
TUMBES / CONTRALMIRANTE VILLAR / TUMBES
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-66d85af8f4ba0fcd52f8b760
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE INCLUSION REGIONAL35.5%
  • UNIDAD, EXPERIENCIA Y TRABAJO CON ETICA20.7%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO15.8%
  • RENOVACION TUMBESINA11.4%
  • FUERZA POPULAR6.6%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU6.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL DIGNIDAD TUMBESINA2.2%
  • PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 20211.8%
Results for event-f5156096dfa2b022be65e16c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE INCLUSION REGIONALperu/S3bc179da18/20224,27935.5%UnknownRecorded
UNIDAD, EXPERIENCIA Y TRABAJO CON ETICAperu/S3bc179da18/20222,49720.7%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/20221,90615.8%UnknownRecorded
RENOVACION TUMBESINAperu/S3bc179da18/20221,37911.4%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20228016.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20227206%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL DIGNIDAD TUMBESINAperu/S3bc179da18/20222672.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 2021peru/S3bc179da18/20222171.8%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • RENOVACION TUMBESINA39.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL FAENA35.9%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO23.0%
  • PERU NACION1.8%
  • PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIO0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE INCLUSION REGIONAL0.0%
  • VAMOS PERU0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL YO SI AMO A TUMBES0.0%
Results for event-4addb02d547db3e66ebf9783
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
RENOVACION TUMBESINAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184,48139.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL FAENAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184,08835.9%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,61523%UnknownRecorded
PERU NACIONperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182091.8%UnknownRecorded
PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE INCLUSION REGIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
VAMOS PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL YO SI AMO A TUMBESperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • SUMATE AL CAMBIO25.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO21.7%
  • SOLIDARIDAD NACIONAL16.4%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA16.0%
  • FUERZA POPULAR7.3%
  • RENOVACION TUMBESINA5.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL FAENA5.0%
  • ACCION POPULAR1.9%
  • PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC0.9%
Results for event-4aeecbe7f292437dd864b575
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
SUMATE AL CAMBIOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,82625.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,38821.7%UnknownRecorded
SOLIDARIDAD NACIONALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,80316.4%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,76716%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20148067.3%UnknownRecorded
RENOVACION TUMBESINAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20145785.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL FAENAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20145485%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142111.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPCperu/S0ef30ae2f8/2014970.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

48.530–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.768771755345597, oldest_gap=3.9731494920174164, previous_gap=3.4494865268147095

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

12.61percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[15.796452842698491,5.967180507210343,0,6.638488314271506,0,0,0,0,71.59787833581967],[22.952690248398138,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.04730975160186],[21.661828737300436,0,1.9140058055152396,7.311320754716981,0,0.8798984034833092,0,0,68.23294629898403]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

10.11percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[15.796452842698491,5.967180507210343,0,6.638488314271506,0,0,0,0,71.59787833581967],[22.952690248398138,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.04730975160186],[21.661828737300436,0,1.9140058055152396,7.311320754716981,0,0.8798984034833092,0,0,68.23294629898403]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

11.36percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[15.796452842698491,5.967180507210343,0,6.638488314271506,0,0,0,0,71.59787833581967],[22.952690248398138,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.04730975160186],[21.661828737300436,0,1.9140058055152396,7.311320754716981,0,0.8798984034833092,0,0,68.23294629898403]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “TUMBES / CONTRALMIRANTE VILLAR — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-7b959e94f3eff1. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.